South Korea's Population Trends Cause Concern
South Korea and other Asian powerhouses like Japan and Singapore are grappling with a looming demographic challenge. The country's total fertility rate, predicted to slide from 0.78 in 2022 to 0.65 in 2025, could shrink the population back to levels last seen in the 1970s if current trends persist. This is a major concern for an economy heavily dependent on its workforce.
Shrinking Population Predictions
According to Statistics Korea, the population could fall to 36.22 million people by 2024, the highest since 1977. In the worst-case scenario, the population may dip to 30.17 million, a decrease matching the 1967 level. The rapidly aging population, with the average age expected to climb from 44.9 years in 2022 to 63.4 years in 2072, only intensifies this concern.
Low Fertility Rates and Increasing Life Expectancy
Behind this demographic shift are multiple factors:
- Fertility rates continue to slide, with economic concerns such as high child-raising costs (over $160,000 USD) and career priorities preventing young women from starting families.
- Enhanced healthcare and living standards have led to a sharp increase in life expectancy, resulting in an aging population.
Potential Solutions and Comparison
To reverse this trend, various solutions are under consideration, such as providing economic incentives, encouraging work-life balance, boosting education about family values, and reconsidering immigration policies. Meanwhile, other Asian nations like Japan and China also grapple with similar challenges, with Taiwan and China also expected to see drops in their populations.
As evident from these demographic trends, support ratios (people between 20 and 64 years relative to those aged 65 and over) are plummeting. In 2020, Japan had a ratio of 1.8 to 1, while China and Taiwan stood at 4.4 to 1 and 4.2 to 1, respectively. By 2050, these ratios may decrease significantly, with Japan and South Korea potentially hosting as many elderly inhabitants as working-age individuals.
[1] The Diplomat: South Korea's Population Crisis: Time to Panic? [2] Asian Development Bank: Population Aging and Labor Shortages in East Asia [3] OECD: South Korea – Population Aging [4] World Bank: Population Aging in China [5] National Institute of Population and Social Security Research: Japan's Aging Population
