Söder Dangles Merz's Chancellorship Chances
In the CDU, it's generally assumed that their party leader is automatically tapped for chancellorship. So, one might assume that Friedrich Merz, as the CDU's leader and parliamentary group leader, would be an obvious choice. However, this isn't the case, thanks in part to Markus Söder.
The coalition's predicament has overshadowed the CDU/CSU's inability to maximize its potential at the moment. Behind the scenes, a quiet power struggle is taking place within the CDU, with Söder playing a part.
Merz holds strong leadership positions within the party, but it's still uncertain whether he'll be the chosen one should elections arise. Even in the event of an immediate recall election, Söder only considers Merz to be the most probable candidate, not an undisputed one: "He would certainly be the favorite in the event of a swift decision," Söder told the magazine Stern.
The interview sheds some light on the CDU/CSU's internal structure. Söder stated that he and Merz agree on the need for new elections, but it was Söder who proposed this, with Merz simply endorsing it.
Merz Calls the Shots When He Wants To
In theory, the CDU leader has the first right of refusal when it comes to the Union's chancellorship bid. This has not always been an easy task to execute in practice. In 2021, for instance, CDU leader Armin Laschet only managed to edge out Söder with difficulty. The history of the Federal Republic of Germany shows that the CDU/CSU only deviated from this rule three times; in 1965, 1980, and 2002, when the CSU leader Frederik Merz (first instance), and Edmund Stoiber (second instance) were selected.
This should make the decision clear: Merz will take the role if he wants it. There's no room for doubt in this. Söder understands this too, acknowledging that a party and parliamentary group leader is always in pole position. In the case of Merz, however, he's only the "favorite" rather than the designated candidate.
Merz Wants a Decision by Late 2024
Merz has publicly stated that he wishes for a decision on his chancellorship bid to be made by late summer 2024, although it remains unclear if he means before or after the eastern Germany state elections. Elections will be held in Saxony and Thuringia on September 1 and in Brandenburg on September 22. Based on current polls, it appears that the CDU may not enjoy much success in any of these three states. There's no clear majority for a functional state government in Thuringia, and the CDU can only hope for potential success in Brandenburg.
Eastern Germany Elections Not a Boon for Merz
It's unlikely that Merz sees the eastern Germany state elections as a strong tailwind to help him sail into a chancellorship bid and subsequently the Bundestag election campaign. Should Söder propose that the decision on the chancellorship candidate should be postponed after the eastern Germany state elections, as he did in August, it's conceivable that he has an ulterior motive—one that wouldn't be favorable for Merz.
Söder Sings Merz's Praises, With His Own Spin
In the interview, there were numerous compliments for Merz, with Söder stating that Merz is doing an excellent job and their collaboration is "really good." However, every compliment from Söder was tied to himself, originally about their work together or shared common ground. When asked if he gets along better with North Rhine-Westphalia's Minister President Hendrik Wüst, he replied they have been friends for a long time. "We get along extremely well. But that's not the point. The crucial question regarding the chancellorship candidacy is who can gather the Union's votes best? Then, the CDU has to decide."
Söder's Words Indicate No Clear Preference for Merz
According to the RTL/ntv trend barometer, the answer to Söder's key question does not strongly favor Merz. In a hypothetical two-party contest between Merz and Chancellor Olaf Scholz, the SPD incumbent was ahead by 36%, while Merz garnered only 32%—even though both sides performed better in the Sunday polls. The survey also showed that Scholz was better received by his party supporters, with 86% opting for Scholz. In contrast, only 66% of CDU supporters chose Merz.
Can Söder Entrust the Last Kick to Merz?
Becoming chancellor with these poll results is possible, as Scholz proved in 2021. However, can they also secure the chancellorship bid? "We aren't seeking a vacation job here," Söder told Stern. He employs the words "we," although he was asked specifically about the chancellorship, emphasizing that the option to serve as a chancellorship candidate is presented to a CSU chairman "at most once in a lifetime." "It's like a penalty shootout: Who can you trust to take the last penalty kick? That's the sort of wood politicians have to be made of—regardless of whether they are prime minister or seek chancellorship."
This is the central question: Can the CDU/CSU confide the last penalty kick to a man who insults the chancellor in the Bundestag as a "plumber of power" and thus insults not only Scholz but also tens of thousands of craftsmen? Söder tells Stern that plumbing is an honorable profession. In other words, Söder would never have stated such a thing himself.
Slip-Ups Happen
Merz's slip-ups are not uncommon, with the "Bild" newspaper already publishing a headline condemning one of his mistakes in a different context: "Merz Commits Another Embarrassing Blunder." Remarks like his comment on asylum seekers having "their teeth done" while "German citizens next door" could not get appointments required some explanation.
Merz as Chancellor of a Black-Red Coalition—Really?
Such blunders reveal Merz's limited support within the CDU/CSU. Söder, Wüst, and the heads of government in Schleswig-Holstein and Saxony-Anhalt signal their independence, particularly with regards to the debt brake debate. However, this presents another challenge for Merz: since he's been explicit about accepting a coalition with the SPD to replace the current traffic-light cabinet, this constellation was already difficult during Chancellor Angela Merkel's tenure and was not popular among the SPD or the CDU/CSU. Furthermore, the relationship between Merz and Scholz is poor, making it hard to imagine a post-election dialogue between the two sides, if Merz were to be elected as chancellor.
In short, Merz is not the CDU/CSU's designated candidate for chancellorship. Söder's stance might ultimately benefit him but someone else as well.
Read also:
- Despite his leadership role, Friedrich Merz still has an unclear future as the CDU/CSU's chancellorship candidate, with Söder only viewing him as the most likely possibility in event of a quick decision.
- In a two-party election scenario, Merz trails Chancellor Olaf Scholz by 4 percentage points, given 36% of German voters would choose Scholz and 32% would opt for Merz, according to the RTL/ntv trend barometer.
- Söder praises Merz in the interview, stating that Merz does an excellent job and their collaboration is "really good." However, Söder emphasizes that the crucial question regarding the chancellorship candidacy is attributable to securing the Union's votes.
- The RTL/ntv trend barometer shows that Merz has limited appeal within the CDU/CSU, with only 66% of CDU supporters pledging their vote to Merz if given the choice between Merz and Scholz, while 86% of SPD supporters would support Scholz.
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Enrichment Insights:
- Merz's overall vote share has hovered around 18%, slightly above his counterpart Robert Habeck (Grüne) and Alice Weidel (AfD) [1].
- While Merz enjoys widest appeal among men and older voters, his appeal less consistent across varying age groups and genders [1].
- The complex political landscape, in which the AfD gains support due to safety concerns, has narrowed the CDU/CSU's lead over the AfD [4].
- Söder's decision to focus on nuclear power as an election issue is seen as a desperate attempt to divert attention from his energy policy failures and remain in contention in the election campaign [3].
- Söder's opposition to the Greens coalition might complicate Merz's efforts to form a coalition with the Greens, which could limit his ability to govern should he become chancellor [5].
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