Soaring gas prices in Russia due to Ukrainian drone assaults on key oil infrastructure
In a surprising turn of events, Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian oil refineries since early August 2025 have caused a significant disruption in Russia's gasoline production. This disruption has led to a sharp rise in prices and localized shortages, affecting the daily lives of many Russian citizens.
Russia's annual oil facilities capacity is nearly 30 million tonnes, accounting for about 11% of Russia's total annual production in 2023. However, these attacks have forced multiple major refineries offline, cutting about 11% of Russia’s refining capacity. As a result, wholesale gasoline prices have reached record highs, with AI-92 gasoline price surging about 38% since the start of 2025 and AI-95 up nearly 49%.
The strikes targeted a concentrated arc of refineries from Ryazan to Volgograd, including Rosneft’s Novokuybyshevsk and Saratov plants and Lukoil’s large Volgograd refinery. These repeated attacks have often caused shutdowns rather than temporary capacity reductions, exacerbating supply constraints amid strong summer demand.
The damage has caused gasoline production to fall by approximately 8.6% and diesel by 10.3% within less than three weeks. This has resulted in fuel shortages in some Russian regions, long queues, black-market activity, and even fuel rationing measures—such as in Crimea where coupons are used.
In an attempt to calm the public, the Ministry of Energy has stated that supplies are stable and logistics are not disrupted. The deficit is being offset by increased production at other refineries. However, the Kremlin has imposed a ban on gasoline exports due to fuel shortages, and the gasoline export restrictions have been extended from late August to late September.
Notable refineries affected by these attacks include Rosneft's largest refinery in Ryazan, which has reduced its capacity by half since August 2. Drone attacks have also targeted refineries in Syzran, Slaviansk, and Afipski.
Despite the ban on exports, the impact on gasoline prices is likely to be limited due to Russia's low gasoline exports. Analysts expect the gasoline crisis to ease by late September as demand drops and some refineries complete seasonal maintenance. However, the Ukrainian drone campaign has exposed vulnerabilities in Russia’s energy infrastructure that could have longer-term impacts if sustained or intensified.
In summary, the ongoing drone attacks have pushed Russian gasoline prices to multi-year or record highs, caused substantial refinery operational disruptions, and led to fuel shortages and rationing in parts of Russia. This highlights intensified energy supply challenges linked directly to wartime drone warfare tactics.
