Slim chances for Pacers to pull off playoff comebacks compared to getting hit by lightning.
When the Indiana Pacers found themselves trailing the Oklahoma City Thunder by a staggering 9 points with just 2 minutes and 52 seconds left in Game 1 of the NBA Finals, even ESPN's win probability model painted a grim picture, giving the Pacers a mere 3.6% chance to win.
And yet, they did what many doubted they could - they clinched a stunning 111-110 victory and snatched the first game of the series. This wasn't even Indiana's most remarkable comeback of the postseason. They had been masters of the come-from-behind win, pulling off at least one miracle in each round of the 2025 playoffs.
Take Game 5 of the conference quarterfinals, for instance. Trailing the Milwaukee Bucks by 7 points in the final 39 seconds of overtime, when the Pacers' odds of winning were a paltry 2.1%, they somehow managed to pull off a 119-118 victory.
In Game 2 of the conference semifinals, they faced a 7-point deficit against the Cleveland Cavaliers with just 57.1 seconds remaining. With the odds stacked against them at 4.1%, they eked out a 120-119 victory.
And in Game 1 of the conference finals, they staged a never-before-seen comeback against the New York Knicks.Entering the final 2 minutes and 51 seconds of the 4th quarter, they trailed by 14 points. The odds of winning were a minuscule 0.3%. Somehow, they battled back to win 138-135 in overtime.
So, while winning just one of these improbable games was a daunting task, winning all four was truly exceptional. How exceptional? Well, your chances of being struck by lightning are actually higher.
Comparing the Pacers' remarkable string of wins to some other rare events, their comebacks rank amongst the scarcest feats in sports. But don't just take our word for it. Let's crunch some numbers.
Historically, teams that trailed by significant margins in playoff games have had dismal chances of winning. Before the Pacers' streak, teams trailing by 9+ points in the final minute of the 4th quarter or overtime had a 0-1414 record since 1998[4].
Given these statistics and the complex interplay of game dynamics, estimating the exact odds of an NBA team pulling off a string of four consecutive comebacks like the Pacers is challenging. However, one thing is clear - the odds are obscenely low.
The Pacers' success in the 2025 playoffs is a testament to their resilience, strategic prowess, and unwavering belief in themselves. Their achievements stand out against typical statistical trends and remain a fascinating example of sporting excellence under extreme pressure.
The Indiana Pacers' extraordinary comeback victory in Game 1 of the NBA Finals, against all odds, showcases their exceptional skills in basketball, further accentuated by their prior victories in the 2025 playoffs. In Game 1 of the conference finals, they managed a miraculous comeback, overcoming a 14-point deficit in the final minutes, a feat that had occurred only once in 1,414 previous attempts since 1998.
