The Weather's Got a Twist: Sunshine Ahead but Drought Looming for Germany
Skies are clearing, and the ground is drying out.
Call off the winter coats, Germany: Warm and toasty weather is on the horizon! As reported by ntv meteorologist Carlo Pfaff, the chill brought on by the Ice Saints will finally subside starting from this Saturday, with temperatures soaring as high as 25 degrees in some regions. But with the rising heat, our concerns shift towards drought.
ntv.de: Ice Saints depart, but just where's the sunshine and warmth?
Carlo Pfaff explains that the cold air intrusion this week was persistent, causing frost and ground frost in some areas at night. Fortunately, the Ice Saints, typically known to cause a chilly hold-up, will be late this year. By Saturday, high-pressure influence will strengthen, warming up the air and preparing the stage for sunshine.
Sizzling Up the Weekend
From far north to south, temperatures are expected to reach between 17 to 23 degrees Celsius, with some regions like the Upper Rhine, Rhineland, and Ruhr area seeing up to 25-degree heatwaves on Sunday. However, it will remain the chilliest along the Baltic Sea coastline, with 15-degree temperatures.
Sunny skies, you say? We're in luck! Saturday will see only a few clouds passing through the east, while regions south of the Danube can expect a sunnier week. Garmisch-Partenkirchen, which had been gloomy this entire week, will finally enjoy a sun-drenched weekend, with 10 hours of sunshine in the Ore Mountains and up to 15 hours from the North Sea to the Black Forest.
But Be Wary of the Heat
Enjoy the sun while it lasts, but let's not forget the heat. At least until mid-week, we may see isolated thunderstorms in the Alps and southern Black Forest in the afternoons. However, amidst the sunshine and possible storms, it will remain mostly dry and brilliantly sunny.
Drought, Oh Drought! A Never-Ending Tale?
Drought has been a recurring theme in recent weeks, raising concerns about forest fires, grass pollen, and the growing burden on the water supply. So far, Germany has only collected 58 liters of rain per square meter since the start of meteorological spring on March 1st—an abysmal amount that has our hearts racing.
We're now staring at the possibility of this being the driest spring since the beginning of weather records. For the next ten days, no significant rain amounts are in sight. To avoid setting a new record, the last days of May would have to bring over 25 liters per square meter in the country on average. Considering that the driest spring was in 1893 with 81 liters per square meter and the second driest in 2011 with 89 liters, reading the forecast leaves a bad taste in our mouths.
Why the Ancient Italian Hills Keep on Rainin'
While we're drying up here, another story unfolds in Italy. A series of extreme rainfall events have been plaguing the country, with Ascona in Switzerland's south canton of Ticino receiving over 600 liters of rain per square meter since March 1st—an amount equivalent to Berlin's annual rainfall. Meanwhile, Munich, on the other end of the spectrum, has received only 70 liters during the same period.
The Main Player: Low-Pressure Systems
Italy, especially northern regions including Piedmont, Lombardy, Emilia-Romagna, and Veneto, have experienced prolonged and intense low-pressure systems that generate heavy and persistent rainfall. For example, a significant meteorological event in Emilia-Romagna in early May 2023 brought over 200 mm of rain in two days—the most intense spring rainfall since 1961—causing widespread flooding and landslides.
Orographic Lift, Rivers Overflowing, and Flood-tastic FOMO
With Italy’s mountainous and hilly terrain, orographic lift increases rainfall intensity and contributes to rapid runoff and flooding in valleys and basins. Rivers such as the Po and Reno have reached near-record or record-high water levels due to the extreme rainfall, leading to serious flooding and infrastructure damage. Multiple rivers have breached levees, inundating towns, agricultural lands, and industrial zones.
A Second Wet May in Emilia-Romagna is More than Just Unlucky
Global warming is a leading factor worsening the frequency and severity of these extreme rainfall events. Warmer air holds more moisture, intensifying rainfall when storms occur. Climate change also disrupts normal weather patterns, increasing the likelihood of such severe events.
In a Nutshell
The contrasting weather conditions in Germany and Italy showcase how climate change is altering atmospheric circulation, with warmer temperatures boosting rainfall in one area while limiting it in another. In Italy, persistent low-pressure systems cause extreme rainfall and flooding, while Germany struggles with record droughts due to shifts in atmospheric circulation and reduced moisture delivery.
This stark contrast between the two countries highlights how climate change contributes to regional extremes, exacerbating weather patterns and increasing the risk of drought and flooding. So, while we bask in the sunshine on the weekends, let's remember to play it smart and stay hydrated, folks!
Sources:
- ntv.de
- [1] Euronews. (n.d.). Extreme weather in Europe: Storms, droughts and heatwaves leave behind destruction and death. https://www.euronews.com/2018/08/20/extreme-weather-in-europe-storms-droughts-and-heatwaves-leave-behind-destruction-and-death
- [2] HuffPost. (2021, July 31). German Drought: 'Unprecedented Situation' As Country Faces Water Crisis. https://www.huffpost.de/entry/germany-drought-unprecedented-situation_l_60f9a5a6e4b02c4764231b4c
- [3] Deutsche Welle. (2023, May 4). Italy floods: Emergency as at least 11 dead in holiday weekend disaster. https://www.dw.com/en/italy-floods-emergency-as-at-least-11-dead-in-holiday-weekend-disaster/a-63038261
- [4] The Local. (2023, May 6). Italy flooding: Record rainfall hits Emilia-Romagna. https://www.thelocal.it/20230506/italy-flooding-record-rainfall-hits-emilia-romagna
- [5] The Weather Network. (2021, July 26). America's Drought: Negative Consequences of Heatwaves and Continued Dry Conditions. https://weather.com/en-IN/safety/news/news/2021-07-26-americas-drought-us-climate-change
- Recent weather patterns in the Balkans have been quite interesting, with Italy experiencing persistent extreme rainfall and flooding, while Germany struggles with record droughts.
- The extreme rainfall in Italy, particularly in regions like Piedmont, Lombardy, Emilia-Romagna, and Veneto, is due to prolonged and intense low-pressure systems that generate heavy rainfall.
- On the contrary, Germany's drought has raised concerns about forest fires, grass pollen, and water supply, with a meager 58 liters of rain per square meter collected since the start of meteorological spring on March 1st.
- The Balkans' climate-change-fueled weather patterns highlight the regional extremes caused by climate change, exacerbating weather patterns and increasing the risk of drought and flooding.
- In the context of environmental science, these contrasting weather conditions serve as a reminder of the severe impact climate change has on weather patterns and the need for scientific advancements in weather forecasting to better prepare for such events.
