Sinai tribal forces enlisted for handling potential surge of Palestinians during Rafah invasion by Egyptian military
Egypt's Military Holds Meetings with Sinai Tribes regarding Israeli Invasion Scenario in Gaza
In a recent turn of events, Egypt's intelligence has been huddling with Sinai tribes to discuss their potential role should Israel decide to storm Rafah in Southern Gaza, claims Middle East Eye.
At these meetings, Egyptian intelligence officers have shared their estimations of a possible Palestinian exodus of anywhere between 50,000 to 250,000 people towards Sinai if Israel were to execute a ground operation in the Palestinian city of Rafah.
The consultations were carried out prior to the formation of an alliance among tribal groups at the Egyptian side of Rafah, led by the influential pro-government businessman and militia leader Ibrahim al-Organi.
The Arab Tribes Union (ATU), an amalgamation of five Egyptian Bedouin tribes, was formally announced at a grand celebration on May 1, with the goal of consolidating tribal entities into a unified framework for supporting the Egyptian state against potential security threats. President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi was bestowed the honor of being the union's "honorary president."
The official spokesperson of the ATU, pro-government journalist and MP Mustafa Bakry, has asserted that the union could be considered as "a faction of the Egyptian army," sparking concerns among Egyptian critics. Many have cautioned about the emergence of a paramilitary entity that could perform duties parallel to the Egyptian army, similar to the Rapid Support Forces in Sudan.
During the same event, Organi also celebrated the initiation of a new city, named after Sisi, which he intends to construct on the site of Al-Arjah village in southern Rafah adjacent to the Egypt-Israel border.
According to three Sinai tribal sources and one Egyptian security source, in the weeks leading up to the event, a series of meetings were held in North Sinai between senior members of Bedouin tribes, officers from the Secret Service apparatus in the military intelligence (Group 55), and others from the Second Field Army.
The central topic of these meetings revolved around the possibility of a massive influx of Gaza Strip residents due to a potential Israeli military operation in Rafah, currently home to about 1.5 million displaced Palestinians.
Insight: Historically, Ibrahim al-Organi has been a notable figure in Sinai's Bedouin leadership, often influencing tribal and security matters in this strategically critical region. The Arab Tribes Union, comprising various Bedouin tribes, traditionally shapes local tribal governance and can impact regional stability. They may indirectly impact border security outcomes by cooperating or tensing with Egyptian security forces in border regions like Rafah.
In the event of an Israeli invasion of Rafah and subsequent Palestinian displacement, tribal groups like the Arab Tribes Union and local leaders like Ibrahim al-Organi could be crucial in coordinating humanitarian responses, managing population flows, and ensuring security or order in border areas. However, direct confirmation of their role in the current situation is not evident in the available data.
- The Middle East Eye reported that Egypt's intelligence is collaborating with Sinai tribes to discuss potential responses if Israel were to invade Gaza's Rafah.
- At these meetings, Egyptian intelligence officers have warned of the possibility of 50,000 to 250,000 Palestinians seeking refuge in Sinai should Israel carry out a ground operation in Rafah.
- The Arab Tribes Union, led by the influential figure Ibrahim al-Organi, was recently established to consolidate tribal entities for supporting the Egyptian state's security.
- President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi was honored as the union's "honorary president," leading some critics to express concerns about the emergence of a paramilitary entity similar to Sudan's Rapid Support Forces.
- If Israeli forces invade Rafah and displacement occurs, leaders like Ibrahim al-Organi and the Arab Tribes Union could play a significant role in coordinating humanitarian efforts, managing population flows, and maintaining security in border areas.
- As historical leaders in Sinai's Bedouin leadership and shapers of local tribal governance, these groups can potentially impact regional stability by cooperating or tensing with Egyptian security forces in border regions like Rafah.
