Significant Progress for the Conservative Party in Ontario Elections

Significant Progress for the Conservative Party in Ontario Elections

In this year's federal election, Ontario's Greater Toronto Area (GTA) served as a hotly contested battleground. Contrary to the past five decades, the Liberals didn't reign supreme this time around. Instead, the Conservatives celebrated significant gains, primarily stemming from the GTA region.

Currently, the Conservatives are on track to accumulate 28 new seats in the province, with potential gains of up to 6 more. On the other hand, the Liberals are racing to avoid a loss of 27 to 21 seats, depending on the final count. Neither the NDP nor the Green Party secured seats in the province.

In the previous election of 2021, the Liberals managed to win 78 Ontario seats, compared to the Conservatives with 37, the NDP with 5, and the Greens with 1. With the electoral boundary redistribution, the province now boasts one additional riding. However, some regions, such as northern Ontario and the city of Toronto, lost seats.

The Conservatives' and Liberals' leaders grabbed headlines. Mark Carney, the Conservative leader, triumphed in Nepean with 63.7% of the vote. Pierre Poilievre, the Liberal leader, faced a more challenging battle in Carleton. At the time of writing, the Conservative leader was second place with 45% of the vote, trailing behind the Liberal candidate with 51.6%. The lengthy vote-counting process in Carleton, which boasted 91 candidates, raised concerns due to revised rules that permitted the counting of advance ballots before the polls closed.

The Conservatives made strides in the GTA, particularly in urban areas. Despite losing the Toronto-St. Paul stronghold in the summer 2024 by-election, the party managed to reclaim it in the 2025 election. Conservatives also won Aurora-Oak Ridges-Richmond Hill, a riding previously held by the Liberals with the narrowest margin in the 2021 election. During the election campaign, conservative leader Pierre Poilievre visited the region approximately 20 times, while Liberal leader Mark Carney made 13 appearances. This represented a shift – it was the first time since 2011 that the losing party won the riding in an election.

The Conservatives also made headway in manufacturing regions previously held by the NDP. These regions were vulnerable due to the threat of tariffs, particularly in the automotive sector. The Conservatives even had the potential to win the traditionally NDP-held riding of Kapuskasing-Timmins-Mushkegowuk. This trend emphasized the NDP’s losses during the campaign. Despite not being endorsed by Doug Ford, Pierre Poilievre managed to win the ridings of Windsor, Niagara Falls, Timmins, and almost all of London. The only exceptions were London-West and London-Centre, which remained under Liberal control.

Sudbury proved to be yet another competitive riding. Both Sudbury ridings had been held by the Liberals for ten years, but the Conservatives collected some of the best results in their party’s history in the past elections. In the 2025 election, Sudbury remained under Liberal control, while Sudbury-Est-Manitoulin-Nickel Belt flipped to Conservative hands thanks to Pierre Poilievre's visit to the city on Saturday.

For francophone ridings, the competition was limited to Sudbury. Nevertheless, the Liberals retained their strongholds in the region, with notable victories in Ottawa-Vanier-Gloucester and Orleans, where Mona Fortier and Marie-France Lalonde respectively secured over 60% of the votes. In Prescott-Russell-Cumberland, the Liberals also managed to keep their hold on the only predominantly francophone riding in the province, which has been red since 2015 due to the efforts of newcomer Giovanna Mingarelli.

1. Pierre Poilievre, the Liberal leader, faced a more challenging battle in Carleton, a region in Ontario, where the Conservatives led by Mark Carney triumphed in the previous Nepean district with 63.7% of the vote.
2. While the Liberals are racing to avoid a loss of 27 to 21 seats in Ontario, the Conservatives are on track to accumulate 28 new seats, with potential gains of up to 6 more, especially in urban areas like the Greater Toronto Area (GTA).
3. The Conservatives also made strides in manufacturing regions previously held by the NDP, particularly in the automotive sector, with the potential of winning the traditionally NDP-held riding of Kapuskasing-Timmins-Mushkegowuk.
4. In the past five decades, the Liberals didn't reign supreme in Ontario's federal elections, but they managed to win 78 seats in the province in the previous election of 2021, compared to the Conservatives with 37, the NDP with 5, and the Greens with 1.
5. The Conservatives' and Liberals' leaders grabbed headlines, with the Conservative leader Mark Carney triumphing in Nepean while the Liberal leader Pierre Poilievre, in his hometown of Carleton, faced a more challenging battle and was trailing behind the Liberal candidate at the time of writing.
6. The Conservatives seized the Toronto-St. Paul stronghold in the 2025 election, which they lost during the summer 2024 by-election, and won Aurora-Oak Ridges-Richmond Hill, a riding previously held by the Liberals with the narrowest margin in the 2021 election.
7. For francophone ridings, the competition was limited to Sudbury, where the Liberals retained their strongholds in the region, with notable victories in Ottawa-Vanier-Gloucester and Orleans, despite the Conservatives collecting some of the best results in Sudbury riding in the past elections.

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