Shrinking populace in Estonia documented
Updated Population Report: Estonia Faces the Sharpest Decline in a Decade
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In a surprising turn of events, Estonia's population experienced a drastic drop in 2024, marking the first decline since 2016, with the number of births falling to record lows according to official data.
As of 1st January 2025, Estonia's population stood at 1,369,995. This decrease was driven primarily by a deepening natural decline, with 9,690 births and 15,756 deaths in 2024, resulting in a natural population decrease of 6,066.
While immigration slightly exceeded emigration - with 18,634 people moving to Estonia and 17,260 leaving - the net migration gain of 1,374 was not enough to offset the demographic imbalance.
"The positive net migration could no longer compensate for the growing natural decrease," said Terje Trasberg, a senior analyst at Statistics Estonia. "As a result, the population declined by almost 5,000 - the first drop since 2016."
Unfortunately, for the first time in the country's statistical history, annual births fell below 10,000. The 11.5% drop from 2023 - when 10,949 children were born - marked a new low.
The aging of the mother population also contributes to lower birth rates. The average age of first-time mothers increased to 28.9 years, which is more than two years older than a decade ago, though still one year below the EU average.
A Closer Look at Migration
Interestingly, the number of deaths remained stable compared to 2023 and pre-pandemic levels. However, the decline in births has accelerated for a third consecutive year.
Net migration was the lowest since 2016. Trasberg noted that immigration levels were comparable to those before the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia's invasion of Ukraine, but emigration had surged - partly due to Ukrainians leaving the country. Emigration in 2024 exceeded the ten-year average by some 5,000 people.
A total of 5,218 Estonian citizens returned home, while 6,472 left - a net loss of 1,254. Meanwhile, 7,013 Ukrainian citizens arrived (down from 13,082 in 2023 and 33,217 in 2022), and 3,829 departed.
"Immigration of Ukrainian citizens halved compared to the previous year, and was nearly five times lower than in 2022," Trasberg said. "At the same time, their emigration rose. Russian immigration also declined significantly, and for the first time in two decades, net migration among Russian citizens turned negative."
Ethnic Diversity and Language
Estonian citizens make up 82% (1.12 million) of the population. The ethnic Russian population, by contrast, declined by more than 10,000. Approximately 65% of the population identifies as ethnically Estonian, with Estonian being the native language of 65% of the population.
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[1] - Statistics Estonia[2] - World Bank[3] - EU Statistics Agency (Eurostat)[4] - UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA)
- despite efforts to attract immigrants, people moving to Estonia in 2024 were outnumbered by those leaving for other countries, contributing to a significant decline in the country's population.
- The language spoken by a majority of people in Estonia is Estonian, but the native language of 15% of the population is Russian, indicating a level of ethnic diversity within the country.
- The decline in life expectancy, due to various factors such as economic challenges and political instability, has become a major concern in general-news discussions across the nation, especially given the current state of the country's population.
