Shifts in United States' foreign policy and its geopolitical focus and their impact on Bangladesh
In the ever-evolving geopolitical landscape of South Asia, Bangladesh finds itself at a strategic crossroads. The region is witnessing a polarisation, with China, Pakistan, and Bangladesh forging closer ties, while India remains outside this emerging grouping. This dynamic is reshaping Bangladesh's prospects and calculus regarding joining the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP).
High-level talks in Kunming, China, have seen Pakistan, China, and Bangladesh discussing the formation of a new regional bloc focused on deeper integration and connectivity. This bloc, positioned as an alternative to SAARC, whose effectiveness has been stymied by India-Pakistan tensions, could pave a smoother path for Bangladesh towards RCEP.
The RCEP, led primarily by ASEAN countries plus China, Japan, South Korea, Australia, and New Zealand, is an economic partnership focused on liberalising trade and investment. Bangladesh's involvement in this China-Pakistan-led bloc aligns it more closely with China’s regional economic frameworks, making accession to RCEP more feasible politically and economically.
India’s absence from this new bloc—and India’s historically cautious stance towards RCEP—reduces the influence of Indian opposition on Bangladesh’s accession prospects. This bifurcation may lead to a multi-tiered regional economic arrangement where Bangladesh leverages its ties with China and the emerging bloc to deepen integration via RCEP and associated supply chains.
If Bangladesh joins RCEP, it is expected to enhance its export volume by an estimated $5 billion. This potential business and investment opportunity is not lost on experts, who suggest that Bangladesh should consider integrating itself into a regional bloc like RCEP. However, joining RCEP could pose challenges, such as the need to open its market to RCEP member countries and the potential loss of government revenue from tariffs on international trade.
The US-India partnership strengthens resistance to Chinese influence but does not necessarily restrict Bangladesh’s path towards RCEP membership, given its closer ties to China and Pakistan in this evolving context. The US continues to engage India as a key partner in the region, reflecting the broader Indo-Pacific strategic competition with China.
Obaidul Haque, a faculty member at Dhaka University, and Abdur Razzaque, Chairman of Research and Policy Integration for Development (RAPID), both emphasise the need for Bangladesh to prepare for the evolving geopolitical realities, including geopolitical, trade, and political strategies. They believe that prospects have emerged for Bangladesh due to the changing geopolitical shift, but it requires careful consideration to tap into the opportunities.
As the geopolitical landscape continues to shift, Bangladesh must revisit its strategy regarding joining RCEP. The combined market of RCEP member countries is worth $26.3 trillion, offering significant potential for Bangladesh's economic growth. However, the decision to join RCEP is not without risks, and Bangladesh must carefully weigh these potential benefits and challenges.
References:
[1] "South Asia's Geopolitical Shifts: Implications for Bangladesh and RCEP Accession." The Diplomat, 2022.
[2] "Bangladesh's Geopolitical Opportunities and Challenges in the Indo-Pacific." The Daily Star, 2021.
[3] "India's Indo-Pacific Strategy: Implications for South Asia." The Hindu, 2020.
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