Shifts are underway
In the upcoming presidential elections scheduled for August 17, 2022, Bolivia is set to witness a significant political transformation. The runoff contest between Rodrigo Paz Pereira, a centrist candidate from the Christian Democrat party, and Jorge Quiroga, a right-wing former president, represents a historic pivot from two decades of socialist rule.
Rodrigo Paz Pereira, who placed first in the initial round with about 32.1-32.8% of the vote, emphasizes change and a break from the socialist policies that have marked Bolivia's recent history. He appeals to voters desiring economic stabilization and recovery from the severe economic chaos marked by inflation and shortages. Although his detailed specific policies are less documented, his platform implies pragmatic governance and moderated right-leaning policies focused on economic recovery.
Jorge Quiroga, a former president (2001-2002) with a market-friendly, right-wing stance, seeks to address Bolivia’s economic crisis by reforming state-run enterprises and potentially shifting relations with international partners, including the US. His campaign capitalizes on voter dissatisfaction with socialist governance and promises economic stabilization and structural reforms.
The ruling socialist party, Movement to Socialism (MAS), which governed Bolivia for 20 years, suffered a major defeat, collectively receiving just over 11% and failing to advance to the runoff. The MAS's nominee for president, Eduardo Del Castillo, a 36-year-old lawyer and the incumbent interior minister, is at less than three percent in polls.
The election results, however, remain uncertain as polls do not capture the votes of people in rural regions, which formed the basis of the MAS government's support. The presidential race is the main focus of the elections, with eight men vying to succeed President Luis Arce of the MAS.
The economic crisis in Bolivia is palpable, with an inflation rate of almost 25% in July compared to the previous year, further exacerbating poverty and structural disadvantages. Long waiting times for filling up vehicles are common due to the shortage of fuel. The dollar shortage in Bolivia has led to a scarcity of imported goods, including gasoline and diesel.
Many Bolivians hope for peaceful elections to avoid violent confrontations like those seen in 2019, following the disputed presidential election. Former president Evo Morales, who has been barred from running for president due to the two-term limit set by the 2009 Constitution, has announced his resistance to the new government and called for invalid ballots to be cast as a way to demonstrate his large support. At least 35 people were killed and over 800 injured in protests and confrontations between political factions in the weeks following the 2019 disputed presidential election.
The new government, to take office on November 8th, faces tough decisions due to the serious economic situation. The elections will also choose 130 deputies and 36 senators for the next five years. Eva Copa, the only woman who was running for the presidency, withdrew her candidacy at the end of July.
In summary, the runoff contest between Rodrigo Paz and Jorge Quiroga represents a historic pivot from socialist rule toward centrist or right-wing leadership, with both candidates addressing economic turmoil through reforms aimed at recovery and stabilization. The election’s outcome will have significant consequences for Bolivia’s economic policies and political direction.
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