Shifting to Nine Conference Games Would Cause Substantial SEC Damage
Layin' it Down: The SEC's Smart Scheduling Strategy that Keeps 'Em On Top
The Southeastern Conference (SEC) might just be the country's toughest conference, and it doesn't hurt that the league has a few scheduling advantages over its competitors.
First off, geography plays a significant role here. SEC universities, even with the recent addition of Texas and Oklahoma, are generally located within the same region. This means many schools are within driving distance, and the longest road trip only crosses one time zone. Compare this to the current ACC, where Cal and Stanford play schools in Miami, Tallahassee, Boston, and South Carolina, or the Big Ten, where Oregon, Washington, USC, and UCLA play throughout New Jersey, Maryland, Pennsylvania, and Ohio.
Some SEC schools have taken this geographical advantage and made it work for them. For example, Florida has only played one road non-conference game in the last 34 years, and that loss didn't surprise anyone.
The tradition among the SEC's top programs of scheduling an effective bye week in November is another advantage. Alabama in 2023 played Chattanooga before the rivalry game against Auburn and then Mercer before a road trip to Oklahoma - although they still managed to lose. The overmatched lower-end opponent gives teams a chance to rest their key players or avoid late-season injuries.
But the biggest advantage? The SEC plays just eight conference games. And a new analysis has shown just how much of an advantage it offers, compared to adding a ninth game. In a nutshell, it's a huge one.
ESPN's Bill Connelly, creator of the SP+ model, made a hypothetical nine-game SEC schedule. The simulations he ran show that while elite teams like Georgia wouldn't see their win projections change much, the middle-tier would be significantly hurt. For example, Florida currently has a 43.7% chance of finishing at least 9-3 in 2025. Add an extra conference game? That drops all the way to 19.6%. Several other teams lose at least 10% probability of finishing with nine wins, and a team like Vanderbilt goes from a longshot to virtually impossible.
Under the current eight-game schedule, Connelly projects that 6.2 SEC teams on average will finish 9-3 or better. Add the ninth conference game, and it goes down to 4.7. It could also cost the conference up to two bowl-eligible teams per year, and at least one, if not two, spots in the College Football Playoff.
So, why don't we see more calls for the SEC to expand to nine games? Simple: it's too risky. Adding that ninth game replaces a typically weaker non-conference game with a more challenging league opponent, which increases the risk of losing. And that's something the SEC can't afford.
To be fair to the SEC, where it excels is in having the most mid-tier programs of any conference. This makes adding that ninth game extremely important, since it removes an easy non-conference home game and replaces it with a formidable opponent like Missouri or South Carolina. Suddenly, a game that seemed like a walk in the park becomes much more challenging.
So, while the SEC might be the toughest conference, thanks to its mid-tier depth, it's also smart enough to stick with eight conference games - for now. And with a strategy like that, it's clear that the SEC won't be losing its top spot anytime soon.
The SEC's strategy of scheduling eight conference games instead of nine allows its mid-tier programs to face less challenging opponents during the non-conference season, such as Chattanooga or Mercer, which can help these teams rest key players and avoid late-season injuries in football, much like Florida did in 2023. Additionally, betting on sports like football, the SEC's tactic provides a substantial advantage, as it could potentially yield more wins for top teams like Georgia, while maintaining a lower risk of losses.
