Shift in World Series Probabilities Significant Following Frenzied MLB Trade Deadline Activity
San Diego Padres Boost World Series Chances with Aggressive Moves
The 2025 Major League Baseball trade deadline has come and gone, and it's clear that some teams have made significant strides towards improving their postseason prospects. Among the most notable of these teams is the San Diego Padres, who have seen a substantial boost in their World Series odds.
According to ZiPS projections, the Padres' probability of winning the World Series in 2025 increased from 3.9% to 7.3%. This move from +3500 to +2000 in the betting odds signifies a substantial boost in their postseason chances.
The Padres' aggressive approach at the deadline was evident in their key acquisitions. They added reliever Mason Miller from the Oakland Athletics and left-handed starter Sears, moves aimed at strengthening their bullpen and starting rotation. With the Padres sitting just three games behind the Dodgers in the NL West and holding an NL wild card spot, these additions could prove to be crucial in the upcoming playoffs.
Meanwhile, the Los Angeles Dodgers, despite being the strong favorites for the World Series at +285 odds, largely "sat on their hands" and did not make significant trade deadline moves. This surprised oddsmakers given their pitching needs. Other contenders such as the Yankees (+900), Phillies (+900), Mets (+950), and Tigers (+1000) also made deadline additions, maintaining their status as top World Series contenders without drastic shifts in odds.
Other teams, such as Cleveland, St. Louis, and San Francisco, saw their playoff percentages drop significantly after either trading away players or refusing to add. The Padres, on the other hand, have a greater probability of winning the division, with their lead over the Dodgers being cut to just three games.
The Padres sacrificed future value by trading most of their best top 15 prospects, but the fans packing Petco Park are going to appreciate seeing a competitive pennant race now more than seeing the team's owners save a few dollars in 2032.
Ryan O'Hearn and Ramon Laureano were brought in by the Padres to address weaknesses in left field and at designated hitter. The team has a real opportunity to win now, as they can't be sure of doing so in 2030.
Manny Machado and Tyler Wade of the San Diego Padres were involved in a walk-off win against the Milwaukee Brewers, a moment captured by Matt Thomas' camera on June 20, 2024. Jake Cronenworth of the Padres was also doused with a cooler of Gatorade after a walk-off win against the Brewers.
Dan Szymborski, the creator of the ZiPS projection system housed at Fangraphs, ran simulations of the effects of new and improved rosters on teams' chances of reaching the postseason and making a deep run. The deadline did not help the Minnesota Twins, but it has certainly given the San Diego Padres a fighting chance in the 2025 World Series race.
- The San Diego Padres' World Series odds significantly improved from +3500 to +2000, following their aggressive moves at the 2025 MLB trade deadline.
- Dan Szymborski's simulations suggest that the new and improved roster of the San Diego Padres has given them a fighting chance in the 2025 World Series race.
- The acquisitions of Ryan O'Hearn and Ramon Laureano by the San Diego Padres aim to address weaknesses in left field and designated hitter, positioning them for a competitive run in the 2025 MLB season.
