Senate majority at risk due to Democratic retirements posing a hurdle in regaining control
Fresh Take:
The latest blow to the Democrats comes with New Hampshire Sen. Jeanne Shaheen choosing not to run for re-election, adding to the party's struggle in the upcoming midterm elections. The Senate Democrats face a tough road ahead as they try to climb out of the minority, with a 53-47 Republican majority and a challenging map offering few offensively lucrative opportunities.
After losing four seats and control of the Senate in 2024, Democrats entered the 2026 cycle against a GOP that was gaining momentum. The retirements of incumbents in Minnesota, Michigan, and now New Hampshire have made the situation even more challenging. President Trump has won Michigan in two of the last three election cycles, and all three open seats will require substantial resources to protect against Republican efforts to expand their majority.
It's a tough pill for the party to swallow when they should be looking forward to a favorable cycle. Historically, midterm elections have been a bright spot for the party out of power in the White House, offering an opportunity for voters to weigh in on the president's leadership. This makes 2026 a critical cycle for the Democrats, who hope to reclaim the Senate in future cycles by netting seats next year.
David Bergstein, spokesperson for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, emphasized the importance of seizing opportunities in 2023. "The Senate map is plentiful with open seats that Democrats can exploit. This doesn't change the fundamental cycle: Republicans have more seats to defend and face a hostile political environment," said Bergstein.
Republicans, on the other hand, view the retirements as a sign of an unfavorable cycle for the Democrats. "Incumbents don't retire when they think they're about to have an easy re-election. They retire when they think 'Holy Sh!t, this environment is going to suck'," said GOP strategist Corry Bliss.
The Democrats' chances of surviving the cycle may rely partly on the Republicans' continued recruitment challenges. The GOP has faced setbacks in recent years with controversial, Trump-backed candidates, such as Herschel Walker in Georgia, Dr. Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania, and Kari Lake in Arizona, leaving some potential Republican recruits hesitant to run in 2026.
Martha McKenna, a Democratic ad-maker and strategist, noted, "Why would a reasonable, moderate Republican ever want to run for Senate in 2026? It's just going to be impossible for them to explain it." The DSCC's Bergstein concurred, stating, "Our approach at this stage is to ensure we have strong candidates in these states, identify where Republicans have weak incumbents, and build the infrastructure so we can take advantage of as many realistic opportunities as possible."
An Unsettling Shockwave in New Hampshire
The first wave of bad news for the Democrats came late in January, with Michigan Sen. Gary Peters announcing his retirement. Weeks later, Minnesota Democratic Sen. Tina Smith made her own retirement announcement.
Smith stated that her decision, along with those of her colleagues, was a personal one regarding how they would spend the next decade of their lives. The three of them express confidence in the strength of the Democratic candidates in their respective states. "I don't think any of the three of us feel that we are the only ones who can do this job in this moment, but it matters to know that I believe a strong Democrat will hold the seat when I am finished in this job," she said in an interview.
Losing incumbents in these states is a significant blow to the Democrats. With Shaheen's departure, they are now faced with the challenge of competing in three open seats, including two in Midwest states that have recently been leaning towards the Republicans.
In New Hampshire, the Democrats are left grappling with vacating an influential figure like Shaheen, former governor and three-term Senator who won her last re-election by a whopping 16 points. Meanwhile, the Republicans are gaining ground in the state, with former Republican Sen. Kelly Ayotte winning the 2024 gubernatorial race by 9 points and Trump improving his performance from more than 7 points in 2020 to under 3 points in 2024.
"This is an earthquake. It absolutely puts this seat in play," said New Hampshire-based Republican strategist Jim Merrill of Shaheen's retirement. "There's no question about it, the seat is now absolutely competitive."
Former GOP New Hampshire Governor Chris Sununu has indicated that he might run for the seat. If he does, it could be a significant advantage for the Republicans in their quest to challenge the Democrats in this critical electoral battle.
Josh Holmes, a Republican strategist and past staffer to former Senate GOP leader Mitch McConnell, underlined the significance of the retirements for the Republicans, while emphasizing the need for unity within the party for upcoming recruitment challenges. "It's an intriguing environment for Republican candidates to want to get involved. But the key is the alignment. You've got to make sure that you've got a president in a White House that sees the world exactly the same way as a majority leader or a Senatorial Committee," Holmes explained.
The Republicans will need to focus on recruiting strong candidates for open seats and ensuring they protect incumbents from primary challenges. Some Republicans, like Sens. Bill Cassidy of Louisiana and Thom Tillis of North Carolina, have already faced primary challenges. Elon Musk and other Trump allies have threatened to back primary challengers to Republicans who deviate from the president's agenda. Trump himself has publicly acknowledged that Republicans who fail to vote with him may face primary challenges. With Musk's considerable resources, there's no question that he'll spend to support his preferred candidates.
Contentious and Chaotic Primaries
The retirements of Peters, Smith, and Shaheen could pave the way for crowded, turbulent primary races for the Democrats, potentially dividing the party and further hindering its chances.
As a result of Peters' retirement announcement, a flurry of prominent contenders expressed interest in the race, including former Biden administration Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, Attorney General Dana Nessel, Reps. Rashida Tlaib, and Hillary Scholten, and state Sen. Mallory McMorrow.
Similarly, Minnesota saw a flurry of activity with Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan and Rep. Ilhan Omar signaling their intentions to run shortly after Smith's announcement. The list of potential candidates in Minnesota also includes Attorney General Keith Ellison and former US Rep. Dean Phillips.
In New Hampshire, Rep. Chris Pappas declared that he is "strongly considering" a run following Shaheen's announcement, while former Democratic US Rep. Ann Kuster also stated that she would "take a serious look" at the Senate race.
According to Democratic strategist Caitlin Legacki, who has worked on Senate campaigns for Shaheen and other candidates, it's a good time for Democrats to retire. "When you look at the bigger picture, it's better to have open seat races in these places in the first midterm of Trump's administration than six years from now, when it's going to be a presidential year, and we don't know what the dynamics are going to be," Legacki stated.
Crowded, heated primaries could serve as valuable testing grounds for the eventual Democratic nominee in each state. However, they could also lead to party factions becoming fractured at a time when unity is crucial. Protracted primaries might also exhaust campaign funds, which will be crucial in what is expected to be one of the most expensive midterm election cycles in history.
In 2022, the most recent midterm election cycle, the most expensive Senate race was in Georgia, which drew more than $385 million in ad spending. The top five Senate races that year cost more than $1.4 billion combined. And in 2024, the top five Senate races cost the parties more than $1.6 billion in total.
Senator Tim Scott, chair of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, is projecting staggering budgets for some of the top races in 2023. Reportedly, he told donors at a February event that the parties could spend over $1 billion defending just two competitive Republican-held seats.
A Mountainous Goal
While retirements create new prospects for the Republicans, their best chance of flipping a seat likely lies in Georgia, where first-term Sen. Jon Ossoff is running for re-election. Ossoff's early 2021 win helped Democrats secure the Senate ahead of Biden's inauguration. However, recent elections have been disappointing, with Democrats losing Georgia's 2022 gubernatorial race by more than 7 points and Trump winning the state by 2 points in 2024.
Democrats' best opportunities to narrow the Republican majority are nonetheless daunting tasks.
One such challenge is in Maine, where Republican Sen. Susan Collins is running for a sixth term. Democrats have found success in statewide races outside of Collins, winning the governor's office in 2018 and 2024, as well as the re-election of Independent Sen. Angus King, who caucuses with Democrats. However, Collins has repeatedly defied these trends and won a decisive 9-point victory in her 2020 re-election campaign.
In North Carolina, Democrats are targeting Thom Tillis, who won in 2014 and 2020 by less than two points, in an increasingly battleground state that has historically frustrated the Democrats at the presidential level. Many Democrats are hopeful that former two-term Governor Roy Cooper will run. As Legacki pointed out, "There's a lot to like about what's happening in North Carolina. It's just a question of whether we can pick up that Senate seat. And look, if anyone can do it, it's Roy Cooper."
- Minnesota Minnesotans, including potential Democratic candidates like Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan and Rep. Ilhan Omar, are seeking opportunities in the open Senate seat left by Tina Smith's reelection decision.
- In the midst of challenging electoral landscapes, Democrats like David Bergstein of the DSCC emphasize the importance of seizing open seat opportunities in the upcoming midterm elections, despite facing a difficult road in the Senate, with a 53-47 Republican majority.
- The Republicans, on the other hand, see the retirements of incumbents such as Jeanne Shaheen in New Hampshire as a sign of an unfavorable midterm for the Democrats, while they focus on recruiting strong candidates for open seats and protecting their incumbents from primary challenges.
