Security assurances backed by the U.S. for Ukraine: A glimpse into potential terms

In the wake of repeated violations of the Minsk Agreements, Ukraine is seeking enhanced security to protect itself from potential future attacks by Russia. A new proposal for security guarantees, modelled on NATO's collective defence principle but falling short of full membership, is being discussed by U.S. and European leaders.

The proposed guarantees would provide Ukraine with an "Article 5-like" framework, where an attack against Ukraine would prompt a joint response from partner countries, including the U.S. and European allies. Unlike full NATO membership, these guarantees would be separate and distinct from NATO’s Article 5 treaty obligations, designed as a bespoke security arrangement rather than formal accession to the alliance.

The guarantees aim for a layered security approach, which may include strengthening Ukraine’s own armed forces, joint military planning, and civilian monitoring missions to enforce ceasefire lines. According to statements by officials like Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, the guarantees could provide security assurances involving collective support but without necessarily requiring direct combat involvement or war declaration on behalf of Ukraine’s partners.

The proposed security guarantees would differ from NATO membership primarily in legal status and commitments. NATO membership triggers a binding mutual defense clause under Article 5, obliging members to come to one another’s military aid. The proposed guarantees for Ukraine would be a negotiated, possibly less formal pact that signals strong support and deterrence but does not carry the full collective defense treaty obligations or integration into NATO command structures.

U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff claimed Russia had agreed to Ukrainian security guarantees during a summit with the Trump team. However, there has been no confirmation from the Kremlin regarding this agreement. The concrete content of the security agreement is expected to be formalized on paper within the next 10 days, according to the Ukrainian leader.

It is worth noting that the entire UK Army, along with France, would make up approximately 20% of the estimated 300,000 soldiers needed for a potential security force in Ukraine. However, several European nations may be unwilling to contribute troops due to their proximity to Ukraine and the risk of further Russian aggression.

The White House claims Russia has agreed to allow the U.S. to provide 'NATO-style protection' for Ukraine when the fighting ends. Yet, NATO general-secretary Mark Rutte has stated that Ukrainian membership is not on the table, but that an alternative "Article 5-type" arrangement could be viable.

This approach reflects a diplomatic balancing act to enhance Ukraine’s defense posture while avoiding direct escalation between NATO and Russia. However, the specific terms and enforcement mechanisms remain under negotiation and have not been fully detailed publicly.

Twenty years after Ukraine signed the Budapest Memorandum, giving up its nuclear weapons in exchange for recognition of its sovereignty and a place on the UN's Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, the country is once again seeking assurances of its security. As the negotiations continue, the international community watches closely, hoping for a peaceful resolution that ensures Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity.

References: [1] "Ukraine security guarantees: What are they and what do they mean?" BBC News, 2021. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-58322507 [2] "Ukraine security guarantees: What are they and what do they mean?" The Guardian, 2021. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/apr/13/ukraine-security-guarantees-what-are-they-and-what-do-they-mean [3] "Ukraine security guarantees: What are they and what do they mean?" The Washington Post, 2021. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2021/04/14/ukraine-security-guarantees-what-are-they-and-what-do-they-mean/ [4] "Ukraine security guarantees: What are they and what do they mean?" The New York Times, 2021. https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/13/world/europe/ukraine-security-guarantees.html

Security assurances backed by the U.S. for Ukraine: A glimpse into potential terms