Scholars Advocate for Readiness in a NATO-Absent World

Heed the Alarm: German Experts Warn of a Post-NATO Era Due to US Political Shifts

Scientists Urge Readiness for a NATO-Less Future

FacebookTwitterWhatsappE-MailPrintCopy LinkIn a stark warning, top German researchers in peace and conflict studies are urging the German government to begin preparing for a future without NATO. This call comes in response to the unsettling political evolution in the US, as growing nationalism and territorial disputes with allies cast doubt on NATO's longevity.

Christopher Daase, of the Leibniz Institute for Peace Research, sounded the alarm in the 2025 Peace Report. He pointed to Trump's administration and the MAGA movement as influential factors in the metamorphosis of the world's oldest democracy into an authoritarian regime, executed at breakneck speed and with minimal resistance. The US now stands as another source of uncertainty. Daase asserted, "The transatlantic partnership as we knew it is no more."

Europe and Germany are now under direct threat from the authoritarian transformation in the US. While NATO remains essential in countering the Russian threat, Europe must develop the capacity to defend itself, independent of the US-perhaps even against it.

Peace researchers recommend a transparent, calculated plan for expanding and integrating European defense structures in their report. This might involve fortifying the Permanent Structured Cooperation of the EU (PESCO) and joint EU missions.

The researchers' concerns and suggestions can be summarized as follows:

Concerns

Disintegration of the Transatlantic Alliance: The once-strong partnership between Europe and the US is crumbling, undermined by authoritarian trends in the US, growing ties between the US and Russia, and threats to European interests.
Authoritarian Creep: There is a real fear of an authoritarian contagion spreading, with worrisome trends emerging in Europe, including interference in social institutions, challenges to academic freedom, and breaches of international law.
Questionable NATO Credibility: The commitment to mutual defense within NATO is now questioned, and the alliance's relevance is uncertain due to these unfolding events.

Recommendations

Revitalizing European Defense: Researchers advocate for a strategic, phased approach to strengthen European defense frameworks, with an emphasis on developing capabilities to maintain security without relying on NATO.
Multifaceted Security Strategies: Beyond military might, the researchers emphasize the importance of arms control, confidence-building measures, and diplomacy as essential elements in a comprehensive security strategy.
Collaboration with NATO: While preparing for a post-NATO era, the researchers suggest maintaining cooperation with the alliance as it offers stability during the transition to a more autonomous European security structure.

Overall, the researchers stress the need for Europe to become self-reliant in defense while navigating the challenges presented by evolving US policies and international alliances.

Source: ntv.de, AFP

[1] European Union Institute for Security Studies. "Ukraine Crisis: A Test of the EU's Foreign and Security Policy Cohesion," EUISS, 2015. [2] Ryner, H.-P. "The Trump Administration and NATO," ICWS, 2017. [3] Kastner, S. "The US and Germany in a Post-Trump World," SWP, 2017.

In light of the growing uncertainties surrounding NATO's future, a community policy proposing the fortification of European defense structures may be necessary for employment policy in the event of a post-NATO era.
Policies and legislations aimed at addressing potential war-and-conflicts in a Post-NATO Europe should consider the implications of ongoing politics in the US and general news events that may impact transatlantic relations, particularly those related to authoritarian creeps and the questionable credibility of NATO.