Scenario for Ukraine discussed with reference to the postage marks of vanished nations, as per Budanov
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has expressed concerns about the country's ability to withstand another decade of fighting, raising alarm bells about the ongoing conflict with Russia. This sentiment is shared by Valerii Zaluzhnyi, the Ukrainian Ambassador to the UK and former Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, who has suggested that the war may drag on until 2034 or beyond if Kyiv focuses only on a ceasefire.
Zaluzhnyi, in his assertions, uses historical examples of countries that ceased to exist as evidence. He emphasizes the importance of independently formulating strategic goals for Ukraine. His concerns are echoed by the head of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense, Kyrylo Budanov, who believes that the fate of the Ukrainian state depends on how seriously Ukrainians understand the challenges.
In response to these concerns, Ukrainian officials are focusing on strategic goals aimed at ensuring the Ukrainian state's survival and strengthening national resilience in the face of ongoing existential threats. These goals include significantly boosting Ukraine’s self-sufficiency in defense production to reduce reliance on volatile foreign military aid, accelerating recovery and reconstruction backed by a $524 billion funding need over the next decade, and implementing comprehensive reforms to build a competitive, EU-aligned economy with a strong private sector and improved governance.
Key military-related strategies emphasize increasing domestic arms manufacturing from the current 40% toward meeting half of Ukraine's military needs within six months. This plan focuses on ammunition, AI-driven interceptor drones, and long-range strike capabilities targeting inside Russia. Institutional restructuring, such as merging the Ministry of Defence with the Strategic Industries Ministry to unify military-industrial efforts, is also part of this strategy.
Economically, priorities aim at mobilizing both public and private sector financing to rebuild critical infrastructure, boost labor market activation, and address macro-fiscal sustainability while reducing informality and increasing competition. Reforms target social cohesion and education deficits caused by the war's disruptions. Ukraine also aims to secure substantial international financial support, with goals of attracting $39 billion in external financing for 2025 specifically.
Furthermore, Ukrainian leadership aims to balance self-sufficiency with strengthened cooperation with international allies, notably the United States, to leverage ongoing and potentially increased military and technological support. Deals to expand American investments in Ukrainian drone production, a critical factor in Ukraine’s defense, are part of this strategy.
Budanov, in his statements, suggests that Ukrainians need to determine their strategic goal. He warns that if strategic goals are not defined by Ukrainians, they will be imposed on them. He also highlights that talks about a country not being able to disappear due to certain events are false. Budanov, in his unique way, uses his stamp collection to illustrate this point, citing many countries in his collection that no longer exist.
Taken together, these strategic goals reflect a comprehensive effort not only to survive current military and existential challenges but also to transform Ukraine into a resilient, self-reliant, and integrated European state with sustained growth and security capabilities. The focus on self-sufficiency, reconstruction, and reforms, coupled with strategic cooperation with international allies, presents a clear path for Ukraine's future.
Politics around war-and-conflicts in Ukraine are a significant concern, with Ukrainian officials focusing on strategic goals to ensure the Ukrainian state's survival and strengthen national resilience amid ongoing existential threats. General news outlets discuss the potential extension of the conflict with Russia, with some experts predicting it may last until 2034 or beyond.
