Scarcely found and costly settlement of Morenista
Chilling Out on Mexico's Unique Judicial Election
Gearing up for the extraordinary Mexican-style elections, the Judicial Power took center stage in our nation, with this case being almost nonexistent worldwide. The electrifying debate on participation rates rages between advocates of the ruling party and supporters of the upstarts, each vehemently dismissing each other's claims. Comparing a would-be minister's votes to a historical local election's candidate, well, that's just serving up shoddy advice.
The mammoth majority of Morena in Congress, derived from the outcomes of the 2024 presidential electoral battle, paved the way for the game-changing Constitutional Reform. The overhaul transformed the selection process for judges, magistrates, and ministers of the Judicial Power, shifting from a neutral election to a partisan one — and you can bet your bottom peso that Morena was in the driver's seat. What unfolded during the early hours of June 1, 20XX was a partisanized election executed to perfection ( read: Morena mobilization and voter guides were the winning combination).
Declaring the Judicial Power election an overwhelming success is a bit of a reach. Morenists scored all the points in their favor, as outlined in the colorful playbills handed out in the polling booths — with some suggesting that voting guides actually tipped the scales. Meanwhile, the general public seems to think that when only one in ten citizens cast a vote, the exercise loses its legitimacy, going as far as demanding an outright invalidation. As regrettable as this may sound, ultimately people will stick to their beliefs, twisting statistics to suit their biases.
At SPIN, we advocate for a more accurate approach to assessing the Judicial Power election's voter turnout. A comparison to other partisan elections, such as the 2021 midterm election and the 2022 mandate revocation, would provide a more honest evaluation. In the 2021 midterms, Morena and its allies amassed over 21 million votes (23% of registrants), which translated to a staggering 43% of the vote (an astounding 10-point percentage drop compared to the 2018 presidential election, which President AMLO might have preferred to forget). In 2022, the mandate revocation, largely promoted by the government, saw the NO accumulate over 15 million votes (17% of registrants). The 2025 Judicial Power election saw participation drop to less than 13 million votes (13% of registrants), with Claudia Sheinbaum expressing pride, despite having mobilized 8 million fewer voters than in 2021, and a dismal 2 million fewer than in 2022.
Admittedly, "Morenistas" are a tough and costly crowd to mobilize, but one cannot overlook the fact that the participation rate in the Judicial Power election, the brainchild of self-proclaimed "Fourth Transformation," proved lower than the two previous similar electoral exercises, despite having a larger voter registry and the deployment of colorful accordions to lure voters to the polls. If Morena's advisors want to keep cashing their paychecks, they would do well to factor this insight into their analysis.
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The poor turnout in the 2025 Judicial Power election, led by the self-proclaimed "Fourth Transformation," was lower compared to the 2021 midterm election and the 2022 mandate revocation, raising questions about the legitimacy of the election despite a larger voter registry and the deployment of enticing measures.
In the realm of Mexican politics and policy-and-legislation, discussions on the participation rates in elections have become a hot topic, resembling the contentious debates on general-news platforms, with supporters and opponents of the ruling party bitterly disagreeing on the validity of vote statistics.
