Saudi Arabia Ponders on Fostering Relations with Israel, Yet Ponderous Expenses Surface
In the aftermath of the Gaza war, Saudi Arabia has outlined several key conditions before normalizing relations with Israel. The Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman views normalization as part of a broader regional transformation but insists on critical prerequisites.
One of the key conditions is robust defense guarantees from the United States. These guarantees are intended to ensure Saudi security amidst regional tensions. Another significant condition is approval for a civilian nuclear program for Saudi Arabia, which is seen as central to its strategic interests.
Saudi Arabia also places great emphasis on meaningful progress on the Palestinian issue. This progress should lay the groundwork for a future Palestinian state, though not necessarily immediate statehood. This reflects a continued Saudi emphasis on Palestinian rights as part of any normalization.
Normalization talks have been complicated by Israel’s military actions following the October 7, 2023 Hamas attack. Riyadh has adopted a cautious approach, balancing public criticism of Israel with efforts to avoid direct conflict involvement. Saudi Arabia remains wary of normalization under conditions that do not show a genuine Israeli willingness for political accommodation with the Palestinians.
While some Israeli officials believe normalization might proceed without Israel committing to an immediate Palestinian state, Saudi Arabia's leadership seems to require visible Palestinian progress as part of the package. Regional neighbours like Egypt and Jordan conditionally support Israeli-Saudi normalization but expect that Saudi Arabia will link normalization to Arab peace initiatives and meaningful Palestinian concessions.
Experts anticipate that the price for Saudi Arabia's normalization may be higher post-Gaza war, with Riyadh potentially seeking more concessions from the US and Israel. Some experts suggest that Riyadh may now demand more meaningful concessions from Israel, possibly including the creation of a provisional Palestinian state.
The current Israeli government is perceived as a potential obstacle to normalization between Saudi Arabia and Israel. The UAE's stance on Israel's actions in Gaza may put pressure on Saudi Arabia to take a similarly firm position. Without progress on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, the UAE may not fully invest in Gaza's rebuild, diverging from the trajectory set by the Abraham Accords.
The conflict between Israel and Palestine resulted in over 23,000 Palestinian casualties. A Washington Institute for Near East Policy poll indicates that 96% of surveyed Saudis believe Arab countries should sever ties with Israel in protest against its actions in Gaza. Saudi analyst Ali Shihabi emphasized that Saudi Arabia's normalization conditions include tangible steps towards a two-state solution, such as lifting the Gaza blockade and empowering the Palestinian Authority.
The Biden administration acknowledges that normalization cannot come at the expense of Palestinian rights. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken asserted that talks on normalization persist during a recent diplomatic tour. Blinken emphasized that Israel's deeper integration into the Middle East requires the resolution of the conflict in Gaza and the establishment of a "practical pathway" to a Palestinian state.
Normalization between Saudi Arabia and Israel is a significant US policy objective, offering the Biden administration a major foreign policy victory. Riyadh suggests that recognizing Israel remains a possibility despite the conflict and heightened tensions in the Arab world. Saudi Arabia's ambassador to the UK, Prince Khalid bin Bandar, affirmed the interest in normalization, stating that it has existed since 1982.
The interest in pursuing normalization could be transformative, according to Blinken. However, without addressing the core issues at the heart of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, progress may remain elusive.
- The Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has indicated that progress on the Palestinian issue is a key condition for normalizing relations with Israel, viewing it as essential for a future Palestinian state and adhering to Palestinian rights.
- In the discussions about normalization between Saudi Arabia and Israel, regional policy-and-legislation, including robust defense guarantees, a civilian nuclear program, and visible Palestinian progress, have been at the forefront, being crucial for both the general-news and Saudi Arabia's strategic interests.
