Saudi Arabia Entertains Prospect of Israel Ties, but Financial Implications Persist
In the complex landscape of Middle Eastern politics, the possibility of Saudi Arabia recognizing Israel has emerged as a potential development, despite heightened tensions and conflict in the region. However, Saudi Arabia's cautious approach to normalization is heavily influenced by public sentiment and the perceived responsibility of the current Israeli government for the Gaza situation.
The UAE, another key player in the region, has called for an end to the ongoing war and a return to the two-state solution, which could signal a shift in its approach to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Meanwhile, the Biden administration acknowledges that normalization cannot come at the expense of Palestinian rights.
Saudi analyst Ali Shihabi emphasized that Saudi Arabia's normalization conditions include tangible steps towards a two-state solution, such as lifting the Gaza blockade and empowering the Palestinian Authority. Without progress on this front, the UAE may not fully invest in Gaza's rebuild, diverging from the trajectory set by the Abraham Accords.
The key Israeli concessions expected for Saudi normalization revolve around recognizing and progressing towards establishing a viable Palestinian state, moving towards a negotiated two-state solution aligned with Saudi and international frameworks, and restraining or recalibrating Israel’s military actions, particularly in Gaza and Lebanon, to align with Saudi interests.
Recent events, including Israel’s intensified military actions, have complicated these prospects. Saudi Arabia shares concerns about neutralizing armed groups like Hamas and Hezbollah but disagrees sharply with Israel’s military approach and strategic vision, which diverge from Saudi regional priorities.
The Israeli Prime Minister, Netanyahu, appears reluctant or unable to offer the significant concessions needed on this front, despite U.S. and regional calls for a deal that would integrate Saudi-Israeli normalization with Palestinian concessions. The notion of a U.S.-Saudi-Israeli agreement that packages normalization with genuine Palestinian concessions has been described as a "low-hanging fruit" yet to be grasped, partly due to Israel’s current political stance.
In summary, the current expectations for concessions from Israel for normalization with Saudi Arabia center mainly on progress towards the establishment of a Palestinian state. Public and official Saudi sentiment remains firmly tied to Palestinian statehood as the linchpin of normalization, making this the principal concession sought from Israel in the current geopolitical climate.
The conflict between Israel and Palestine has resulted in over 23,000 Palestinian casualties, underscoring the urgency for a resolution that aligns with Saudi and international aspirations for peace and stability in the region.
Policy-and-legislation addressing the Israeli-Palestinian conflict may face significant hurdles due to the war-and-conflicts in the region, as evidenced by the UAE's calls for ending the war and the Biden administration's emphasis on Palestinian rights. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia's normalization with Israel hinges on tangible steps towards a two-state solution, such as lifting the Gaza blockade and empowering the Palestinian Authority, which are key topics in general-news discussions related to the Middle East politics.
