Saturday NHL Forecast: Specialist Prognostications on May 3rd
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NHL Predictions: Whose Game 7 Is It? Colorado Avalanche vs. Dallas Stars
The showdown of the NHL's opening round has come right down to the wire. And frankly, it's about bloody time.
Colorado Avalanche (-165, 5.5) vs. Dallas Stars
Game Seven (Series tied 3-3)
8 p.m. ET
The Dallas Stars' Pete DeBoer is a veritable Game Seven legend. With an 8-0 record in game sevens throughout his career, he's practically signed, sealed, and delivered these Stanley Cups before the first puck even drops. "Obviously great memories," he mused. "I don't have any bad ones. Let's keep that going." The Avalanche, on the other hand, haven't won a game seven since 2002 - a time when Cale Makar was probably still bouncing around in a bouncy castle.
The Avalanche opened as the road favorite at (-135), but the line has since shifted considerably to favor them at (-165). If you check out the VSIN Betting Splits page, you'll see that the Avalanche are eating up a hearty 40% of the bets, while a massive 81% of the moolah is going towards them at Circa. Meanwhile, over at DraftKings, the Avalanche are snagging 57% of the bets, but only 49% of the cash, indicating some sharp-eyed wagers on the Colorado juggernaut.
I'm not willing to back the Avalanche on the Money Line at this price, especially with Jake Oettinger's numbers in his last three game sevens. Oettinger boasts a 2-1 record, 1.54 goals against average, and a .956 save percentage. But I'll still be eyeing both teams on the Puck Line (-1.5 goals). I also like the Stars to score the first goal of the game, as teams that come off a loss and score first in the next game are a sizzling 24-11.
It's all about blood, sweat, and (perhaps) tears in Game Sevens. With that in mind, I'm also gonna hone in on a couple of blocked shots props. Ryan Lindgren from Colorado has tallied three blocked shots in each of the last three games, whilst Thomas Harley from Dallas has managed three or more in each of the last three, as well.
Last but not least, a couple of shots on goal props. Colorado's Cale Makar has racked up four or more shots on goal in four of the last five games, and five or more three times. The Stars' Mason Marchment, on the other hand, has notched four consecutive games with two shots on goal.
Predictions:
- Dallas Stars to score the first goal of the game: +105, - .50 units
- Dallas Stars -1.5 goals: +310, - .25 units
- Colorado Avalanche -1.5 goals: +156, - .25 units
- Ryan Lindgren Over 2.5 blocks: +120, - .50 units
- Thomas Harley Over 2.5 blocks: +205, - .50 units
- Cale Makar Over 3.5 shots on goal (-110): - .50 units
- Cale Makar Over 4.5 shots on goal: +205, - .25 units
- Mason Marchment Over 1.5 shots on goal (-155): - .50 units
- Joel Kiviranta anytime goal: +1200, - .10 units
- Matt Duchene anytime goal: +375, - .10 units
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Insights:
Goaltender Jake Oettinger has been a stalwart in Game Sevens, with a 2-1 record, a 1.54 goals against average, and a .956 save percentage.Coach Pete DeBoer is 8-0 in Game Sevens throughout his career, making the Dallas Stars a formidable opponent.The Avalanche have lost six straight Game Sevens, including their last three to the Dallas Stars. Their last Game Seven win was in 2002.According to betting stats, the Colorado Avalanche have received a significant amount of "sharp money" wagers at DraftKings.Game sevens are about heart, passion, and sometimes a little pain - it's not just about skill.Teams that come off a loss and score the first goal in the next game are 24-11, making the Dallas Stars a potentially strong pick to score first.Ryan Lindgren and Thomas Harley are worth keeping an eye on for blocked shots, with both players averaging three or more in the last three games.Cale Makar is a key player for the Avalanche, especially on the power play, and could be a valuable selection for same-game parlays.
- Matt Duchene, with his +375 odds, is an intriguing anytime goal pick in the Game Seven between Colorado Avalanche and Dallas Stars.
- The NHL's expert picks for Thursday, May 1, could likely include insights on the pending avalanche between Colorado Avalanche and Dallas Stars, given the attention the series has been receiving.
- Despite Jake Oettinger's impressive record in Game Sevens, the Colorado Avalanche's struggles in this specific scenario (losing six straight Game Sevens, including their last three to the Dallas Stars) are concerning for betting on the Money Line.
- With game sevens being decided not just by skill but also heart, passion, and sometimes pain, experts might advise keeping an eye on blocked shots props, such as Ryan Lindgren and Thomas Harley, who have averaged three or more in the last three games.
