Ukrainian Missile Development: The Sapsan and Hrim-2 Project
News swirls around the involvement of Sapsan and Hrim-2 in the creation of Ukraine's latest ballistic missile project. On August 28, President Zelensky made a declaration, unveiling their first domestically manufactured ballistic missile. While Zelensky was cryptic, mentioning 'new,' it's possible that 'new' refers to expansion in range or payload capabilities.
Extensive Range for Strategic Counterattacks
Kyiv's counteroffensive against Russia becomes even more formidable with the introduction of homegrown ballistic missiles. Ambitious objectives include fuel storage facilities, refineries, and airports, with political targets, like Moscow, high on the priority list. Kyiv's operations have been successful using drones, benefiting from their wide range and potential targets. However, drones remain vulnerable to downing by ground-based machine gun teams.
With new domestically produced ballistic missiles, Kyiv would be armed with weapons capable of covering up to 1000 kilometers with a payload of about 500 kilograms. These missiles would significantly bolster the capabilities of Kyiv's aerial counteroffensive.
Countering Air Defense
Defending against ballistic missiles calls for a sophisticated air defense network. Shorter reaction times are essential, as drones can only engage stationary targets. On the other hand, ballistic missiles require a complex air defense strategy to counteract.
The Sapsan Autonomous Unmanned Aerial System
Ukraine's new ballistic missile can be likened to the Russian Iskander, capable of battling aircraft or rocket launchers when they momentarily halt. Beyond engaging Russian targets, such missiles pose threats to the frontline. Due to their extensive range, rocket launchers need not be relocated to engage a specific location along the front.
The Role of the Kursk Region
Evidence of this potential can be seen in the Kursk region, where understrength Russian forces faced a surprise attack from the Ukrainians. Although they faced significant opposition, the Russians were still able to engage targets effectively using Iskander missiles.
Long-term Developments
President Zelensky shared limited information on the new missile. However, there are suspicions that it could be an extension of the Sapsan or Hrim-2, projects with a significant history in Ukraine.
Ukraine has long possessed the required expertise for missile production, with institutions like the Pivdenne Design Bureau leading the charge. The production and manufacture faced financial constraints, but there has been renewed interest following the conflict in 2014/2015. In 2021, a test battery was ordered, and funding was reportedly approved in June 2023.
The Future of Kyiv's Missile Program
Zelensky did not make further disclosures, leaving unknown details about the new missile's capabilities. It's unlikely that mass production has advanced beyond individual prototype models. Developing a ballistic missile with a range of 700-1000 kilometers under the Russian threat will be challenging. Kyiv may decentralize production and assembly to secure locations such as abandoned mines or tunnels to expedite deployment.
Prospects of Mass Production
Deploying more significant quantities of these missiles will take time, but if Kyiv can build a mass production line, their options in the 2025 war years will expand significantly. These missiles could pose threats to Russian air force bases, weapon factories, or even Iskander missile launchers. Moscow would subsequently need to develop a suitable air defense for major cities.
A Balance Shift in the Conflict
The successful development and deployment of Kyiv's domestically produced ballistic missiles could potentially swing the power balance in the ongoing conflict with Russia. The missiles would have the range to target strategic targets within Russian territory, such as airforce bases and weapon factories.
Additional Insights
The new ballistic missile reportedly under development by Ukraine with involvement from Sapsan and Hrim-2 is the Sapsan (also known as Hrim-2) SRBM system. However, it is worth noting that this system is largely unfinished and has not yet been successfully deployed [2][4].
There is lack of explicit mention of the range of the Sapsan/Hrim-2 system in the sources. However, it is a key focus area for the Ukrainian military in its ongoing efforts to develop long-range missile capabilities, given the ongoing conflict with Russia [2][4].
