Sanseitō's Voter Boom: Grassroots Strategy Catapults "Japan Comes First" Political Group
In the political landscape of Japan, the upcoming general election, expected to be held no later than October 2028, is creating a buzz. One of the parties expected to benefit significantly from this election is Sanseitō, a far-right political party.
Sanseitō's strategy for capturing local assembly seats is proving to be a game-changer. The party focuses on fielding candidates in areas where competition is low, often in rural jurisdictions with candidate shortages. This approach has allowed Sanseitō to secure a total of 155 municipal and prefectural assembly seats as of the end of July 2025.
The party's strategy is not limited to local elections. Sanseitō has been building regional networks with the aim of posting major gains in national elections. To this end, the party has established party chapters in almost all of Japan's single-member House of Representatives constituencies, totaling 287 out of 289.
The lower-house electoral system in Japan was reformed in 1994, combining single-seat districts with large multi-member 'proportional-representation blocs'. This system allows a politician running in a single-seat district to also be on their party's proportional-representation list, providing a 'second-chance' for victory via proportional representation.
Sanseitō currently holds only three seats in the House of Representatives. However, the party's urban and suburban middle-class supporters are expected to benefit from the proliferation of urban electoral districts.
Local assembly elections are often overlooked by emerging political parties, perceived as irrelevant to the political process. However, Sanseitō recognises the value of these elections. Local assembly members are expected to function as 'ground forces' in their parties' national election campaigns. With local assemblies convening on average 90-120 days per year, these members have a significant amount of free time to dedicate to their parties' campaigns.
The deposit required to run in municipal assembly elections in Japan is relatively low: just ¥150,000 in towns and villages and ¥300,000 in cities. This low barrier to entry makes it easier for parties like Sanseitō to field candidates in a large number of districts.
It's important to note that there is no available information about Sanseitō winning the most seats in the Japanese House of Representatives elections in 2028. The party's future depends more on the efficacy of its electoral strategies than on the number of card-carrying party members, with an estimated 68,000 members and supporters.
Meanwhile, other political parties in Japan are struggling to make an impact. The Reiwa Shinsengumi, a left-wing party, controls only 60 seats in local assemblies nationwide, and the Conservative Party of Japan occupies only 9.
The economic slump that began in the 1990s accelerated the exodus of young people from the countryside to urban and suburban areas, leading to the subdivision of many electoral districts to reflect population growth. This trend could potentially favour parties like Sanseitō that have a strong urban and suburban presence.
In the 2023 unified local elections, almost 14% (2,057) of all assembly members elected ran uncontested. This indicates a lack of competition in many districts, a situation that Sanseitō is capitalising on with its strategy of establishing party chapters in single-seat districts, including many where its chances of a win are slim.
The election deposit is returned to election winners and those who receive a significant portion of the total vote. This incentivises parties to field serious candidates and encourages voters to participate in the democratic process.
In conclusion, Sanseitō's strategy for capturing local assembly seats and building regional networks is expected to give the party a significant boost in Japan's next general election. The party's focus on local elections and its urban and suburban middle-class supporters could potentially lead to major gains in the national elections.
