Same-sex marriage, approved by the Supreme Court a decade ago, faces a potential reversal?
In 2004, President George W. Bush's reelection campaign received a boost from state constitutional bans on same-sex marriage [1]. Fast forward seventeen years, and the landscape has shifted dramatically. Today, close to 70% of Americans approve of same-sex marriage, according to some polls [10]. However, there has been a recent increase in efforts to challenge the Obergefell v. Hodges decision, a landmark ruling that established constitutional protections for same-sex marriage [1][2][4].
Leading this renewed push is Kim Davis, a former county clerk from Kentucky, who has filed an appeal to the Supreme Court asking for the overturning of the Obergefell decision [1][2][4]. Davis, who refused to issue marriage licenses to same-sex couples in 2015, has had her case rejected by the Supreme Court since 2019 [1][2][4].
The current status of these challenges is that the Supreme Court has been formally asked to hear the case, but legal experts note that the Court is highly unlikely to take it up given the complications of undoing protections that have been established for a decade and the existing legal framework [1][2]. This includes the 2022 Respect for Marriage Act, which mandates federal and state recognition of same-sex marriages performed in any state—even if the Supreme Court were to overturn Obergefell in the future [1][2].
While some conservative justices previously expressed opposition to Obergefell, there is uncertainty about whether the current Court's makeup (with a conservative supermajority) would grant review or overturn the precedent [1][4]. At least four justices would need to agree to hear the case, and five to overturn it [1][4].
Advocates stress that public support for marriage equality remains high, and that the movement’s strength extends beyond Obergefell itself, grounded in community stories and ongoing activism [3]. If the ruling were to be revisited, it would not invalidate existing marriages due to legal protections, but individual states might theoretically seek to limit or ban same-sex marriage absent Obergefell [1][2].
Meanwhile, aggressive legal actions by states regarding trans rights today somewhat mirror efforts to limit marriage rights years ago. In a positive development, Justice Neil Gorsuch extended federal civil rights protections to LGBTQ people in a landmark decision [6]. Mary Bonauto, who argued in favor of marriage equality before the Supreme Court, sees a similarity between the long fight for marriage equality and the current fight for trans rights, stating that people tend to help each other once they get to know each other [7].
In a hopeful sign for the future, Scott Bessent, Treasury Secretary under President Donald Trump, became the first openly gay married man to be appointed by the Senate in a Republican administration [5]. This appointment highlights a potential shift in attitudes within the Republican party, although recent polling suggests that Republican support for same-sex marriage has been declining over the past three years [8].
In summary, there is a notable renewed effort to challenge Obergefell in 2025 led by Kim Davis’s petition, but the Supreme Court has yet to decide whether to hear the case, and significant legal and political obstacles make a successful overturn uncertain at this time [1][2][3][4]. The ongoing fight for trans rights faces similar challenges, but advocates remain optimistic and committed to securing full legal protections for all members of the LGBTQ community.
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