Potential Russian Assault on Germany: Exploring the Possibilities - Russia's Potential Aggressive Moves Towards Germany: An Overview
In the shifting geopolitical landscape, Germany is taking significant steps to bolster its defense capabilities in response to credible intelligence suggesting a potential Russian military attack on NATO, with Germany as a likely target.
According to political scientist Christian Mölling, Germany is moving away from its previous defensive posture, as highlighted in a recent podcast discussion. The German government and the Bundestag, however, have yet to develop a comprehensive plan for the overall defense of Germany, a responsibility that lies with the Interior Ministry.
Germany, being the "hub" and "logistical backbone" of NATO, plays a crucial role in any conflict scenario. Approximately 800,000 soldiers and 200,000 vehicles might need to be moved through Germany to the Baltic in such a situation, underscoring Germany's strategic importance.
The German military has a classified 1000-page plan, "Operations Plan Germany," outlining its response to a military attack. However, the lack of a civilian counterpart to provide legitimacy is a concern for the military's preparedness.
Mölling expresses particular concern about the lack of preparation by the Bundestag and government for a potential attack on government institutions, such as the Bundestag. The German military itself acknowledges that it is not optimally prepared due to this lack of a civilian counterpart.
To address this, Germany is overhauling its civil defense and military readiness. This includes modernizing civil protection infrastructure, enhancing early-warning systems, and preparing the civilian population for conflict scenarios.
The German military is also strengthening its air defense. Eurofighter Typhoon jets have been deployed to Poland ahead of the Russian-Belarusian "Zapad-2025" military exercises, signalling deterrence and readiness to respond to any escalations.
Germany's efforts are not limited to military preparedness. The European Policy Centre, where Mölling is a senior fellow, has published a report on Germany's defense capabilities, highlighting the need for societal resilience and preparedness for potential hybrid and conventional warfare tactics.
Initial or secondary care for the wounded in a potential attack could take place in Germany. Much of the supplies needed for a front in a potential attack would also have to pass through or come back from Germany, further emphasizing its strategic importance.
Germany's Defense Minister Boris Pistorius has emphasized Germany’s commitment to defend NATO territory by force if necessary. However, he also acknowledges ongoing challenges in defense procurement and the need for accelerated arms production to meet demand.
In summary, Germany is actively working to improve its defense capabilities, recognizing the potential threat posed by Russia. This includes strengthening both its military and civil defense posture, as well as addressing the need for societal resilience in the face of potential hybrid and conventional warfare tactics.
[1] The Situation - International podcast discussion featuring Christian Mölling [2] European Policy Centre report on Germany's defense capabilities [3] German military's "Operations Plan Germany" [4] German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius' statements on defense procurement and readiness [5] Military exercises such as "Quadriga 2025" simulating defending NATO's eastern flank and Germany's role as a key logistical hub.
- With an increasing focus on the geopolitical landscape and potential threats from Russia, the German government and its community, as highlighted in The Situation - International podcast discussion, are reviewing and modifying their employment policies to prioritize defense spending and readiness, including modernizing civil protection infrastructure and enhancing early-warning systems.
- Amidst the ongoing review of Germany's general news and politics, the government is also addressing the concern about the lack of preparation for a potential attack on government institutions, such as the Bundestag, by implementing policy changes that aim to foster societal resilience and preparedness for potential hybrid and conventional warfare tactics, as outlined in the European Policy Centre report.
