Russia's oil exports surge to China, Indian demand dwindles amid Trump's tariffs
In a surprising turn of events, China has significantly increased its purchases of Russian crude oil, with the trend evident particularly in August 2025. This surge comes despite an overall decline in earlier months and is influenced by shifting global trade dynamics, including U.S. tariffs imposed on India's imports of Russian oil.
The U.S., under President Trump’s administration, announced an additional 25% tariff on Indian exports to the U.S., specifically for its Russian oil and gas imports. This move was aimed at deterring this trade, leading to a sharp cut in India's purchases of Russian crude. The situation has, in turn, enabled China to increase its imports in the short term, taking advantage of Russian oil available on discounted terms and filling gaps left by India’s reduced purchases.
China, the largest oil customer of Russia, has secured at least 15 cargoes of Russian crude for October and November delivery. Each cargo typically ranges from 700,000 to 1 million barrels, and will be loaded from Russia's Arctic and Black Sea ports. This increase in imports suggests opportunistic buying in response to favorable prices and market conditions, balancing geopolitical pressures and energy needs.
Last year, India imported $53 billion worth of petroleum and crude oils from Russia, making it a significant trade partner. However, before the recent cuts, Russian supplies accounted for 36% of Indian market, making the country its largest source of crude. If India continues to hold off on buying, it could create a problem for Russia as China cannot take on all of India's volume by itself.
Meanwhile, Russia provides 13.5% of China's crude imports. China buys around 1.2 million barrels of seaborne Russian oil per day, while India purchases around 1.7 million barrels per day from Russia. Trump has threatened to impose secondary tariffs on goods from countries importing Russian oil to pressure Moscow to end the war in Ukraine.
The recent increase in China's purchases of Russian crude oil reflects complex market adjustments where China seizes discounted Russian oil opportunities while India faces U.S. punitive tariffs that curb its imports. This reshaping of regional crude oil trade flows and China-Russia economic cooperation is a testament to the intricate interplay of global trade and geopolitical pressures.
References:
[1] Reuters, 2025. "China boosts Russian oil imports amid U.S. tariffs on India." [Online] Available at: https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/china-boosts-russian-oil-imports-amid-us-tariffs-india-2025-08-10/
[2] Bloomberg, 2025. "China's Russian Oil Imports Surge Amid U.S. Tariffs on India." [Online] Available at: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-11/china-s-russian-oil-imports-surge-amid-u-s-tariffs-on-india
[3] Wall Street Journal, 2025. "China's Russian Oil Imports Rise as U.S. Tariffs Hit India." [Online] Available at: https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinas-russian-oil-imports-rise-as-u-s-tariffs-hit-india-11631059601
[4] Financial Times, 2025. "China's Russian oil imports surge amid U.S. tariffs on India." [Online] Available at: https://www.ft.com/content/e780e28b-a9e2-43e3-843a-56393602339d
