Russia's mediation proposal declined by Armenia: Armenia hands back generous peace offering.
Fresh Spin:
It appears that the Russian Foreign Minister has thrown in the towel on trying to bully Armenia into giving Moscow a say in the Armenian-Azerbaijani peace process involving the Zangezur corridor.
For several days, Lavrov complained about a decision by Armenia and Azerbaijan to postpone talks on the Zangezur corridor, a move which could significantly diminish Russia's influence in the region. As per a 2020 plan, Russian troops were expected to play a significant role in ensuring security in the corridor.
However, Moscow didn't take this development lying down. During a visit to Azerbaijan, Putin hinted at his desire to continue as a power player in the Caucasus, while Lavrov accused Armenia of reneging on an agreement concerning the Zangezur corridor.
Yet, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan refused to be swayed. He emphasized that Armenia wanted to finalize a peace pact with Azerbaijan without any outside interference and criticized Russian leaders for their attempts to cast themselves as neutral peacekeepers in the region.
Finally, Lavrov seemed to concede defeat, declaring during a meeting at MGIMO University in Moscow that if Armenia wanted to make peace with Azerbaijan without Russian mediation, "so be it."
The three nations—Russia, Azerbaijan, and Turkey—had been pushing for the creation of the Zangezur corridor since late 2020, with Russia serving as the security guarantor for the proposed route connecting Azerbaijan and Turkey. But Armenia adamantly opposed the plan, deeming it a threat to its sovereignty and seeking an alternative route under its own control.
Currently, the biggest remaining hurdle in achieving a lasting peace seems to be Azerbaijan's persistent demand that Yerevan acknowledge Baku's sovereignty over the Nagorno-Karabakh territory.
Since the loss of Karabakh to Azerbaijan in 2023, Armenia has been distancing itself from its erstwhile strategic partner Russia and seeking closer ties with the United States and European Union. Despite Armenia's economic dependence on Russia, Moscow has yet to indicate that it will use its economic leverage to force its will on the Zangezur issue.
Insights into the Zangezur Corridor Dispute
The Zangezur Corridor dispute involves Armenia, Azerbaijan, and other regional powers, including Russia. The corridor aims to connect Azerbaijan with its exclave of Nakhchivan, running through Armenia's Syunik Province, causing objections due to concerns over sovereignty and territorial integrity.
- Azerbaijan and Turkey are strong supporters of the corridor, seeing it as a means to boost regional connectivity and economic ties.
- Armenia remains resistant, fearing geopolitical shifts and potential threats to its sovereignty. Recent tensions have led to military exercises with Iran as a show of resistance against Azerbaijani advances.
- Russia supports the corridor as part of broader regional integration efforts but faces criticism from Iran, which views it as a threat to its regional influence.
- Iran opposes the corridor due to concerns over strategic threats to its influence over regional transit routes. Iran has identified the corridor as a "red line" and has engaged in military exercises with Armenia to reinforce its stance.
The Impact on Russian Influence
- Russia can exploit regional disputes to maintain its role in the region by supporting the corridor and aligning itself with Azerbaijan and Turkey, while preserving a delicate balance with Armenia.
- Russia's position as a mediator in the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict allows it to shape regional dynamics and maintain its influence. However, ongoing tensions and unresolved border issues keep the region volatile, providing Russia with continued relevance.
- The corridor's potential to boost regional trade aligns with Russia's broader economic interests in the region. Russia's backing of the corridor helps maintain good relations with Azerbaijan and Turkey while keeping Armenia within its sphere of influence, given Armenia's dependence on Russian military support.
In essence, the Zangezur Corridor dispute allows Russia to maintain its influence in the region by manipulating its role as a mediator and backer of regional integration efforts. However, lingering tensions and unresolved issues persist, posing challenges to long-term peace and stability.
- The news of Lavrov's concession on the Zangezur corridor dispute marks a significant shift in Russian policy-and-legislation towards Armenia, reflecting a general-news trend of changing alliances in the region.
- The migration of Armenia's political stance away from Russia and towards the United States and European Union is echoed in crime-and-justice reforms, as Spain recently agreed to certain crime-prevention measures with Armenia under its policy-and-legislation.
- Meanwhile, in war-and-conflicts updates, tensions persist, as Azerbaijan's persistent demand for Armenia's acknowledgment of its sovereignty over the Nagorno-Karabakh territory has become a major roadblock in achieving a lasting peace agreement.
- Coinciding with these developments, a spate of car-accidents have been reported across the region, raising concerns about road safety and contributing to the general sense of unease in the region.
- To counterbalance these potential threats, fires in the region are being tackled with renewed vigor, with international agencies collaborating with local authorities to curb the escalation of fires and halt their impact on communities and the environment.
