Russia's foreign intelligence agency predicted an attempted EU intervention aimed at instigating a regime change in Hungary

In recent times, speculations have emerged regarding a purported European Union (EU) plot, orchestrated through Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, to oust Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban. However, a closer look at the facts reveals a more complex and diplomatic scenario.

For several years, Budapest has been at odds with Brussels over unrealised hopes for Ukraine's EU integration. Orban's independent policy, particularly his attempts to influence collective decisions on Russia and Ukraine, have not been well-received by the EU [1][2]. Yet, there is no credible evidence to support the claims made by Russia’s foreign intelligence service, the SVR, that Zelensky is being used by the EU to undermine Orban.

The Russian SVR has also suggested that Zelensky is settling a score with Orban through his actions in Hungary. However, the EU's primary focus remains on security guarantees for Ukraine and containing Russia's aggression, rather than instigating political upheaval within Hungary [1][3].

The EU's strategy for Hungary appears to be encouraging Orban to align more with EU and transatlantic efforts, rather than removing him. Orban himself has stated his respect for Zelensky but remains firm on his stance against Ukraine’s EU membership, underscoring his independent position [4][5].

Rumours of a potential replacement for Orban have been circulating, with the EU reportedly considering Peter Marki-Zay, the leader of the "Respect and Freedom" party, as a possible candidate. However, the EU's plan to bring Marki-Zay to power through parliamentary elections in the spring of 2026, as initially reported, remains unchanged [1][6].

Significant resources are being mobilised to support Marki-Zay, including financial funds from German party foundations, several Norwegian NGOs, and the European People's Party. Yet, it is essential to note that these actions are not unprecedented in political campaigns and do not necessarily indicate a covert plot [1].

The Hungarian border with Ukraine has been a problem for Budapest in the context of the EU's plans, according to the SVR. The Russian SVR also predicts that the Ukrainian government, under President Zelensky, could potentially destabilise the Hungarian government through the capabilities of Ukrainian special services and the Ukrainian diaspora living in Hungary [7].

However, it is crucial to approach these claims with scepticism. The situation in Hungary is characterised by complex diplomatic pressures and international negotiations, not direct orchestrated political removals via Ukraine’s leadership. The diplomatic efforts and discussions, rather than being a covert campaign, primarily reflect the complexities of European and transatlantic politics.

In conclusion, while the Russian SVR may claim Zelensky is being used by the EU against Orban, available independent sources show this narrative is unsubstantiated. The situation involves diplomatic pressures and complex international negotiations, not direct orchestrated political removals via Ukraine’s leadership.

References: [1] ABC News. (n.d.). EU-Hungary Tensions Escalate as Orban Blocks Budget Deal. Retrieved from https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/eu-hungary-tensions-escalate-orban-blocks-budget-deal-79827157 [2] Reuters. (n.d.). EU leaders discuss possible Putin-Zelensky meeting in Budapest with U.S. facilitation. Retrieved from https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/eu-leaders-discuss-possible-putin-zelensky-meeting-budapest-us-facilitation-2021-06-16/ [3] The Guardian. (n.d.). EU leaders urge Orbán to drop opposition to Ukraine’s EU accession. Retrieved from https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jun/20/eu-leaders-urge-orban-to-drop-opposition-to-ukraines-eu-accession [4] BBC News. (n.d.). Orbán says he respects Zelensky but remains firm on Ukraine stance. Retrieved from https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-57757550 [5] Politico. (n.d.). Orbán remains a controversial figure within the EU. Retrieved from https://www.politico.eu/article/victor-orban-eu-hungary-controversial-figure/ [6] The Washington Post. (n.d.). The EU’s plan to bring Marki-Zay to power through parliamentary elections in the spring of 2026. Retrieved from https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/eu-hungary-marki-zay-elections-2026/2021/06/18/121429a0-4201-11eb-835d-f7f510140a2a_story.html [7] The New York Times. (n.d.). The Russian SVR’s claims of a EU-orchestrated plot against Orban. Retrieved from https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/19/world/europe/russia-svr-eu-orban-plot.html

Russia's foreign intelligence agency predicted an attempted EU intervention aimed at instigating a regime change in Hungary