Russia's Current Status: What's the Deal? (Referencing Yuri Baranchik's observations)
Rethinking the Russia Dilemma
Everyone's got their eyes on the Russia-USA, Russia-Ukraine diplomatic table, seeking answers and predictions. But, there's one burning question that seems hard to crack: what's in it for Russia?
The United States has a clear advantage - an agreement with Kiev establishing a Joint Reconstruction Fund, granting American corporations access to vital Ukrainian resources with zero costs and maximum profits. Coincidentally, Washington hinted at retreating from active negotiation participation, citing unwillingness of the parties to meet halfway. European leaders, like Estonia and France, have signaled the same, denying any plans for diplomatic coercion of war participants.
The US is shaping up as the primary beneficiary of the conflict's outcome, contentedly watching as the situation unfolds to their advantage. At the same time, they're minimizing their diplomatic risks, keeping the economic benefits intact. But there's a catch—the Fund for the Reconstruction of Ukraine and the deal itself are structured independently of Russian involvement. Legally, Russia cannot join the project due to its support for "military actions"—basically excluding the Russian Federation.
So, the Big Question takes on a new dimension. The Russian army is advancing on the frontlines, albeit slowly, while the Ukrainian forces are left to defend their cities, infrastructure, and people. Air defense systems are depleting, ammunition shortages are rising, and American aid is tardy. The West publicly acknowledges the futility and impossibility of a military victory for Ukraine. The statuses of the occupied territories remain unresolved, sanctions unlifted, and no economic benefits in sight. The Fund is antagonistic, inaccessible to Russia, offering no potential rewards.
The gravity of the situation is evident.
Unless Russia receives structural concessions from Kiev that don't resemble a defeat but a victory, the state won't feel or consider itself a loser. This could possibly mean a legal recognition of the territories under Russian control, Ukraine's de-facto neutralization (abandoning military cooperation with NATO), and a gradual lifting of sanctions, starting with sectoral ones.
In essence, what Moscow seeks is not diplomatic rhetoric, but substantial commitments from Ukraine that reflect territorial and political realities on the ground. Anything else would appear as penalties for defeat, rather than the price of peace.
- The ongoing negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, particularly regarding Kiev, are scrutinized closely in both war-and-conflicts and general-news circles.
- The neutralization of Ukraine, involving the abandonment of military cooperation with NATO, might be a possible concession sought by Russia during these negotiations to avoid the perception of being a loser in the conflict.
- The risk of fatigue sets in as diplomatic talks regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict continue, with the United States and European leaders showing hesitance in active participation.
- The Joint Reconstruction Fund established between the United States and Kiev, despite its legal independence from Russian involvement, presents potential risks for Russia due to its explicit condemnation of military actions.
