Russian Propaganda's Strength Indicates National Risk Level, According to SAB
In recent years, Russia's information activities have been a source of concern, particularly in neighbouring countries like Latvia. These activities, which include propaganda and disinformation, serve as significant indicators of potential further escalation and military confrontation.
Since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Latvia's authorities have blocked hundreds of websites spreading Russian propaganda. The content of these sites often justifies Russia's war and occupation, or even calls for enlistment to fight, directly supporting Moscow’s military objectives. The persistent attempts to access these blocked propaganda sources—up to half a million monthly attempts—indicate an active Russian disinformation effort targeting Latvia, aimed at eroding trust in the government and NATO, impacting societal cohesion and readiness for conflict.
The Baltic states, including Latvia, perceive these information campaigns as part of a hybrid warfare strategy by Russia. By combining propaganda with military threats, Russia seeks to destabilize the region and intimidate NATO allies. The Baltic states’ efforts to build a stronger defense line indicate their anticipation of possible further military confrontation tied to this hostile information environment.
Studies and expert analyses highlight that countries close to Russia with significant Russian-speaking populations view disinformation as a threat to territorial integrity and political independence. The content disseminated by Russian media like RT and Sputnik is designed to manipulate public opinion, potentially leading to political destabilization that could precede or accompany military incursions.
Russia's tactics in this information warfare are evolving, with the use of AI tools and the circumventing of bans on outlets. If the war in Ukraine were to be "frozen" and the armed forces no longer suffered significant military losses in active combat, the Russian military threat to NATO would significantly increase. Russia could implement plans to increase military forces towards NATO's northeastern flank, including the Baltics, within approximately a 5-year period.
However, it is important to note that the intensity and content of the messages directed at the Baltic states are not comparable to what was directed against Ukraine. While Russia's military resources are concentrated in Ukraine, the probability of a direct military confrontation between Russia and NATO is low.
Activities in the information space are one of many indicators of Russia's intentions, but their significance, impact, and potential consequences should not be overstated. The Security Authority of the Baltic States (SAB) considers various factors and their changes over time when assessing the impact of Russian information pressure.
In conclusion, while the situation in Latvia may not yet be as dire as in Ukraine, the persistent propaganda and disinformation campaigns are a barometer of Russia's hostile intentions and an early warning of possible escalation. Latvia's defensive responses and regional defense collaborations underscore the seriousness with which these information campaigns are regarded as indicators of looming conflict.
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