Russian peacekeepers' withdrawal from Karabakh reflects robust relations between Baku and Moscow - Aliyev's perspective
A Hasty Goodbye: Russians Bid Adieu to Nagorno-Karabakh
It's farewell to the Russians, it's farewell to Nagorno-Karabakh! That's the current scenario on the ground in this war-torn region. Yet, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev assures us that Russia's influence in the Caucasus isn't waning anytime soon.
On April 17, both Russian and Azerbaijani officials confirmed that the Russian peacekeepers stationed in Nagorno-Karabakh would commence their withdrawal immediately, a year ahead of schedule. These troops had entered the region in late 2020, brokering a ceasefire following the second Karabakh War. They remained on the sidelines last fall, as the Azerbaijani military seized control of the territory lost to Armenia during the first round of fighting in the 1990s, driving out over 100,000 ethnic Armenian residents.
Political analysts attribute the peacekeepers' premature withdrawal to the draining effects of the Russian-Ukraine war, which reportedly has weakened the Kremlin's capacity to project influence. In Moscow for an April 22 meeting with Russian leader Vladimir Putin, Aliyev aimed to dispel any notion of Russia abandoning the Caucasus.
"Russia holds a vital role in regional security in the Caucasus and beyond," Aliyev stated before the talks with Putin.
The peacekeepers' inability to keep the peace in Karabakh led to a rupture in the Armenian-Russian strategic partnership. Meanwhile, in Azerbaijan, older citizens remain skeptical of Moscow's motives due to its questionable history of dealings with the country.
Since regaining control of the region last year, many Azerbaijanis speculate that there must have been a secret deal between the Russian and Azerbaijani governments. They wonder: In exchange for Azerbaijan having a free rein in Karabakh, what did Moscow gain? The April 17 announcement failed to quell the rumors of a quid-pro-quo.
A Baku-based analyst, Shujaat Ahmadzade, dismissed the reductionist interpretation of Azerbaijani-Russian relations. He suggested that the withdrawal of peacekeepers might simply be a pragmatic decision, unaccompanied by ulterior motives. With the Russia-Ukraine war prolonged, the Kremlin may divert its troops elsewhere, viewing saving costs associated with the deployment as an advantage. Moreover, Ahmadzade explained that both Russia and Azerbaijan share mutual interests, including the desire to expand North-South trade routes.
"The relationship is more intricate than it appears," Ahmadzade stated, adding that the partnership ebbs and flows like a rollercoaster with periodic highs and lows. Currently, there seems to be alignment between Azerbaijan and Russia on various issues.
Alignments in messaging between Moscow and Baku on regional developments suggest a similar sentiment. Both countries have critically appraised recent efforts by the United States and European Union to foster economic ties with Armenia.
At their April 22 meeting, Aliyev and Putin emphasized the growth in bilateral trade, which surpassed $4 billion annually. The occasion for the meeting was to celebrate the 50th anniversary of the Baikal-Amur Railway, known as BAM. Though both leaders praised BAM on April 22 (also Lenin's birthday), the infrastructure project has struggled to meet its economic promise and is mainly seen as a symbol of Soviet economic dysfunction during the "stagnation era."
Aliyev highlighted the rising significance of the North-South trade route, with Azerbaijan positioned as a hub for commerce connecting India, Iran, and Russia. The leaders reportedly discussed regional security matters, including "sensitive" topics; however, details about the talks' substance and outcomes remain sparse.
Upon returning to Baku, Aliyev attributed the early withdrawal of peacekeepers to joint decision-making, suggesting that it would further strengthen Azerbaijan-Russia relations.
"This [withdrawal of peacekeepers] was a collective decision, and it only reinforces our relationship. It underscores that when nations communicate effectively, respect each other, and cooperate, they can find agreement on most contentious issues," Aliyev said.
- The withdrawal of Russian peacekeepers from Nagorno-Karabakh, announced on April 17, has sparked speculation about the future of Russian influence in war-and-conflicts areas like the Caucasus, given the draining effects of the Russian-Ukraine war.
- Political analysts and experts, such as Shujaat Ahmadzade, have suggested that the peacekeepers' premature withdrawal might not necessarily indicate a dwindling policy-and-legislation bond between Russia and Azerbaijan, but rather a pragmatic adjustment due to the prolonged war in Ukraine and the desire to consolidate North-South trade routes.
- Despite the rumors of a quid-pro-quo between the Russian and Azerbaijani governments, Aliyev and Putin have highlighted the growth in bilateral trade and the significance of Azerbaijan as a hub for North-South trade routes, which could mean a continued partnership in general-news and economics beyond the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.
