Russian military participation in Sapad-2025 exercises in Belarus raises concerns for Lithuania
Belarus and Russia are set to conduct the joint military exercise Zapad-2025, scheduled for mid-September. The exercise, which will take place on Belarusian territory, has sparked concerns among neighbouring countries and military experts due to its potential implications.
Defense Minister Viktor Khrenin of Belarus has presented the changes in the exercise as a sign of goodwill, indicating a readiness for dialogue, compromise, and relaxation. According to reports, the number of troops deployed for Zapad-2025 is expected to be halved compared to the previous exercise, Zapad-2021. However, the exact strategy and intentions of Russian President Vladimir Putin and Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko remain unclear.
In 2021, Russia and Belarus deployed a staggering 200,000 soldiers for Zapad-2021, a number much higher than the expected 13,000 for previous exercises. This deployment was later seen as preparation for the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. The ongoing geopolitical tensions and the unclear strategy of Putin and Lukashenko in relation to Zapad-2025 continue to be a source of concern.
The strategy of Putin and Lukashenko regarding Zapad-2025 centers on conducting large-scale joint Russian-Belarusian maneuvers on Belarusian territory, including rehearsals for nuclear weapon employment and strategic deterrence. Lukashenko fully aligns with Putin’s plans, allowing Belarus to be used both as a staging ground and logistical base, and actively supporting any Russian use of Belarusian territory if needed, including for operations against Ukraine or potentially NATO neighbors.
From the perspective of NATO and Ukraine, Zapad-2025 is seen as a potential threat escalation. Ukraine’s President Zelensky and neighboring NATO countries like Poland and Lithuania have expressed concern that the exercises could serve as a cover for further aggressive Russian moves, including possible incursions into NATO territory, though an immediate large-scale escalation is considered unlikely.
NATO is closely monitoring the exercises and responding with its own troop deployments and exercises near the Belarusian border. Lithuania, for instance, is conducting its own military exercise "Arsus Vilkas 2025" near the border with Belarus from August 11 to 22. Meanwhile, Lithuania and Poland have reported increasing military activities by each other.
The Inspector General of the German Armed Forces, Carsten Breuer, stated in the spring that Putin is capable of a "large-scale war". This assessment has not changed to this day. Military experts have emphasized the threat to the Baltic states due to the Zapad-2025 exercise.
Despite the reduction in troops for Zapad-2025, the exercise does not necessarily indicate a decrease in the overall threat level posed by the exercise. The ongoing geopolitical tensions and the unclear strategy of Putin and Lukashenko continue to be a cause for concern. Lithuania has warned of a possible Russian attack on NATO due to its geographical proximity since the beginning of the Ukraine War.
In conclusion, Putin and Lukashenko use Zapad-2025 to consolidate military preparedness and political messaging that reinforces their alliance and deterrence posture while signaling readiness to escalate if challenged, especially regarding NATO’s eastern flank. Their strategy includes maintaining Belarus as a compliant partner and forward base for Russian military operations, including potential nuclear scenarios. The exact strategy of Putin and Lukashenko for Zapad-2025 remains unclear, but the exercise serves two primary strategic purposes: militarily, it rehearses coordinated Russian-Belarusian operations near NATO’s eastern flank, practicing conventional and nuclear scenarios, while politically it aims to counter Western warnings by portraying alarmist concerns as exaggerations or scaremongering.
[1] The Diplomat [2] CNBC [3] The Guardian [4] BBC News [5] Politico
Read also:
- Court petitions to reverse established decision on same-sex marriage legalization
- Commemoration of 200 Days of American Resurgence Unveiled
- Minister Bärbel Bas expresses doubts about her tenure as a minister following a recent interview during the summer.
- Politicians from both Republican and Democratic parties are urging President Trump to maintain the security agreement with Australia and the United Kingdom.
