Russian forces aiming at capturing major Ukrainian cities and towns including Bakhmut, Kyiv, and others.
In the ongoing conflict between Ukraine and Russia, a potential spring offensive is looming, with Kyiv bracing for significant strikes as early as February 24. The offensive, if it materialises, is expected to be a prolonged and resource-intensive campaign, with Russia aiming to consolidate control over previously annexed territories and significantly expand its hold into central, southern, and eastern Ukraine.
One of the key strategic targets Russia might aim for is the entirety of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, which it illegally annexed earlier in the conflict. Beyond formal territorial claims, the Russian military command's objectives for 2026 extend to include large areas across Ukraine. This includes the unoccupied Zaporizhia Oblast, all of Chernihiv, Sumy, Kharkiv, and Poltava oblasts, half of Kyiv and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts, and parts of southern Ukraine west of the Dnipro River, including most of Odesa and Mykolaiv oblasts.
Russian forces are also expected to target nine currently unoccupied oblast capitals, including Zaporizhzhia, Odesa, Mykolaiv, Dnipro, Kharkiv, Sumy, Chernihiv, Poltava, and half of Kyiv city, with a combined pre-war population of over 5.6 million people.
Another strategic target is attacking Ukraine's "fortress belt" in Donetsk Oblast, a campaign expected to last years at the current pace. The Russian military has prioritized efforts to break Ukraine’s strong defensive lines there.
Meanwhile, Vuhledar, a small town in the Donetsk region, has become significant for Moscow as it is close to the only railway connecting the Crimean peninsula and Russian-controlled territories in the east. Ukrainian forces have been shooting weapons at Russian supply trains from there, causing concern for Russia. Vuhledar has been the subject of repeated attacks by Russian forces, who have recently resumed their offensive after failing last November.
While there hasn't been an increase in nearby enemy forces, Russians have been shelling private areas more frequently. Ukrainian troops are continuing to hold Bakhmut, a city that has been grabbing headlines due to conflicting claims over who controls it. If Bakhmut falls, attacking forces are expected to push towards the cities of Slovyansk and Kramatorsk.
Melitopol and Tokmak are easily within Ukraine's range if American HIMARS travel up to 120km. Moscow is cautious of a Ukrainian advance towards Melitopol, as Kyiv has discussed the city's importance before, claiming its freedom would remove Russian supply routes to Crimea.
Kharkiv, Ukraine's second-biggest city, has never fallen into Moscow's control, despite being less than 25 miles from the border with Russia. However, Kharkiv has been subjected to consistent missile strikes and power outages throughout the winter season.
The West and Ukraine agree on there being no knowledge suggesting the resources are under the threat they faced in 2015. Moscow has mobilized numerous thousands more men and increased its production of tools and ammunition. Some officers in the local military have said they "would not be surprised" if the Russians launched another attack, especially with the frozen ground.
As the world watches, the term "springtime offensive" is likely to be frequently used in the coming weeks of the war in Ukraine. Kyiv is anticipating significant strikes from the eastern and south, and the fighting has become more fixed throughout the winter months. Despite these challenges, Ukrainian troops are resolute in their defence, holding key positions such as Bakhmut and Vuhledar.
The forthcoming spring offensive in Ukraine, as anticipated, could expand beyond the ongoing conflict in Eastern Ukraine, with Russian objectives possibly encompassing large areas across the country, including the unoccupied Zaporizhia Oblast, all of Chernihiv, Sumy, Kharkiv, and Poltava oblasts, half of Kyiv and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts, and parts of southern Ukraine like Odesa and Mykolaiv oblasts. In the news, the expected targets are not limited to the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, but also include the capital cities of nine unoccupied oblasts, with a combined pre-war population of over 5.6 million people.
