Russian businesses adapt as high costs and shifting trade routes reshape markets
Russian businesses are facing a mix of challenges and shifts in strategy as economic conditions evolve. High interest rates, changing logistics, and technological progress are altering expectations for companies and investors alike. Meanwhile, industry leaders have shared their outlooks on trade, construction, and commodity prices in the coming years. At a recent industry discussion, Dmitry Sredin of VTB highlighted how rising interest rates, new logistics demands, and rapid tech advancements are forcing businesses to rethink their plans. His comments came as companies adjust to a more complex financial landscape.
Pavel Strogonov, head of Konti-Rus, admitted that exports have been difficult for his firm over the past two years. Yet he stressed that pulling out of foreign markets is not viable, as competitors would quickly take over. His remarks reflected broader concerns about maintaining market share amid global uncertainty.
Stanislav Kiselev, CEO of Kortros Group, warned that even if Russia's key interest rate falls to 12%, economic growth won't follow immediately. He estimated it could take three to five years for profitability to recover. Kiselev also noted that financing new construction projects now costs three to four times more than before, adding around 15,000 rubles per square metre in regional developments.
On commodities, Alexander Khrushch of Seligdar forecasted gold prices reaching $4,600–$4,800 per ounce by 2026. His prediction aligns with expectations of sustained demand for precious metals. Amin Heydarzade, CEO of Ricoflot, described 2026 as a year of major structural changes in global trade but said Russia would remain a top wheat exporter. Since 2022, the country's exports have increasingly shifted from the EU to China, India, and Turkey, particularly for energy products like oil and gas. The outlook for Russian businesses remains mixed, with high costs and slow recovery timelines shaping investment decisions. While some sectors, like gold and wheat, are expected to hold strong positions, others face prolonged adjustments. Companies are now focusing on adapting to new trade routes and financial pressures in the years ahead.
