Russian advancement toward Kharkiv and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts may be facilitated if Ukrainian troops withdraw from Donetsk Oblast, according to the Institute for the Study of War.
In the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine, a potential withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from the fortress belt in Donetsk Oblast could have significant strategic implications for Ukraine. This heavily fortified line of cities and towns, resisting Russian advances since 2014, serves as a critical defensive barrier for Ukraine.
The fortress belt, consisting of four major cities and several towns and settlements along the H-20 Kostyantynivka-Slovyansk highway, has been a central obstacle to the Kremlin's territorial ambitions for the last 11 years. If Russian troops gain control of this region, they would establish lasting, fortified positions from which to potentially launch further offensives into Ukraine.
Control of the fortress belt would also allow Russia to occupy key industrial and military production facilities, which are vital to Ukraine’s defense effort. This would give Russia a logistical and manufacturing advantage, potentially placing hundreds of thousands of civilians under Russian occupation and affecting the humanitarian situation and political control dynamics.
Moreover, the loss of the fortress belt would create new lines of advance toward central Ukraine and potentially encircle strategic locations such as Kharkiv. This would worsen Ukraine’s operational posture, as the current fortified line includes cities along the N-20 Kostyantynivka-Slovyansk highway such as Sloviansk, Kramatorsk, Druzhkivka, and Kostiantynivka. These locations have been hardened over years of conflict and serve as a critical buffer protecting deeper Ukrainian territory.
If Ukraine accepts such a demand, it would surrender its fortress belt with no guarantees that the fighting will not resume. This would mark a major strategic setback for Ukraine, weakening its frontline defenses, losing industrial capacity, increasing civilian occupation, and potentially enabling Russia to renew large-scale offensives on much more favorable terms.
In response, Ukraine would likely need to urgently build massive defensive fortifications along the border areas of Kharkiv and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts to prevent a Russian advance. However, natural barriers such as the Oskil and Siverskyi Donets rivers are too far east to serve as defensive positions for Ukrainian soldiers in the region.
Reports suggest that Russian President Vladimir Putin has proposed a two-stage plan to US President Donald Trump, where Ukraine would withdraw its troops from Donetsk and the line of contact would be frozen in the first stage, followed by a final peace plan agreement between Putin and Trump, to be coordinated with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in the second stage. This proposal includes significant territorial concessions from Kyiv and international recognition of the occupied territories in exchange for Russia ceasing hostilities in Ukraine.
However, analysts believe that the cession of the remaining territory in Donetsk Oblast would provide Russian troops with exceptionally good opportunities to renew attacks on much more favorable terms. The Wall Street Journal reported this information, citing sources.
In conclusion, the potential withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from the fortress belt in Donetsk Oblast could have severe strategic implications for Ukraine, potentially leading to a significant weakening of its frontline defenses and defense industrial base, increased civilian occupation, and potential renewed large-scale offensives by Russia. Ukraine has invested time, money, and effort into reinforcing the fortress belt and establishing critical defence infrastructure in and around these cities, underscoring the strategic importance of this region.
The loss of the fortress belt in Donetsk Oblast, a vital defensive barrier for Ukraine, could exacerbate its political control dynamics, as hundreds of thousands of civilians might be under Russian occupation. Additionally, the withdrawal would significantly affect the health of Ukraine, as it could lead to renewed large-scale offensives and potential humanitarian crises.
