Russia-Ukraine Conflict: Ukraine Cripples Russian Oil Exports and Energy Supplies
Poland has called for a complete ban on Russian oil imports to the European Union, following a series of events that have escalated the ongoing conflict between Ukraine and Russia. On September 10, 19 Russian drones entered Polish airspace, marking the first drone attack on NATO soil.
In response, the European Commission is expected to propose speeding up the phase-out of Russian fossil imports in its 19th package of sanctions. This move comes as Ukraine has launched a two-pronged strategy this year to choke off fuel supplies to the Russian economy and military, and to disrupt revenues from energy exports.
Ukraine's efforts have shown signs of success, with mounting evidence suggesting that the first prong of the strategy is working. Fuel shortages have spread to 10 Russian republics and regions, indicating a significant impact on Russia's energy infrastructure.
One of the most prominent examples of Ukraine's strategic attacks is the strike on Russia's largest oil offloading terminal at Primorsk on the Baltic Sea, which caused a fire and suspended shipments. Ukraine has also targeted pumping stations along the Transneft Baltic Pipeline System-2, affecting crude oil supply to offloading terminals in the port of Ust-Luga.
These attacks have taken a toll on Russia's refineries. Ukraine has reportedly struck at least 10 major Russian refineries this year, with the commander of its Unmanned Systems Forces estimating that Russia has lost one-fifth of its refining capacity. Ukraine even crippled Russia's second largest refinery by striking a processing unit accounting for 40 percent of the plant's capacity.
Russia, in an attempt to counter these attacks, has banned all exports of refined petroleum products since February and sought to increase exports of crude oil instead. However, this strategy has not been without its challenges. Transneft, Russia's biggest pipeline operator, has reportedly told upstream oil producers they may have to cut their output due to Ukrainian strikes degrading its ability to store and carry oil to refineries and export terminals.
The Russian Independent Fuel Union has reported many petrol stations have not received deliveries for several weeks and have been forced to shut down. This has led to widespread fuel shortages across Russia, further exacerbated by the significant losses Russian forces have suffered in key regions such as Kupiansk and Dobropillia, as reported by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
Despite these challenges, Ukraine has continued to fight, engaging in slow, tactical retreats since 2024. The Ukrainian military leadership has even dismissed officers in charge of the 17th and 20th Ukrainian Army Corps, involved in the regions where several villages were captured by Russian forces over the past week.
The Institute for the Study of War estimates that Russia took 1,910sq km of Ukrainian territory from May to August at a cost of 130,000 casualties. The ongoing conflict continues to have far-reaching implications, with oil and gas revenues accounting for between a third and half of Russia's total federal budget proceeds over the past decade.
As the conflict continues, both Ukraine and Russia are adapting their strategies in response to each other's actions. The future of the conflict remains uncertain, with the potential for further escalation and disruption to global energy markets.
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