Titled: "Russia's Strategy of Crisis: The Finnish-Russian Borderstandoff"
Once again, the stage is set for NATO's pressure cooker as refugees materialize at its border. Finnish soil now finds itself in a familiar predicament, mirroring the turmoil that erupted between Belarus and Poland in 2021. Experts from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) suggest this unfolding drama is no coincidence - just another tactic from Russia to destabilize NATO.
Analysts from ISW claim that Russia is employing a well-documented hybrid warfare strategy, artificially creating a refugee crisis at the Finnish border, similar to their notorious antecedent on the Polish border with Belarus. The ultimate objective seems to be to destabilize NATO, following a playbook that was well-rehearsed the previous year.
In disclosing their daily report on the Ukraine conflict, ISW highlighted that Kremlin's machinations, or more likely its directing powers, played a crucial role in the staging of a refugee crisis at the Belarusian-Polish border in 2021. The Kremlin orchestrated this, as Belarusian security forces reportedly aided thousands of refugees from the Middle East in crossing the border. Conveniently, this established a false accusation against NATO of aggression towards Belarus. At the time, the West swiftly accused Belarus of retaliating against EU sanctions.
The Finnish Border Guard reported a sudden influx of around 300 asylum seekers, largely originating from Iraq, Yemen, Somalia, and Syria, landing on Finland's border since September, following the nation's NATO affiliation in April. Appearances of migrant convoys stirred significant controversy in Moscow, resulting in Dmitry Peskov's bold warning that Russia would resort to 'countermeasures' in safeguarding its security.
Information from various media outlets sheds some light on the current developments at the Finnish-Russian border. Reuters reported that dozens of refugees had gathered at Nuijamaa and Vaalimaa border crossings, huddled around a campfire in sub-zero temperatures. Iltalehti detailed the Finnish authorities' possible decision to close the entire border with Russia after Finland's four northeastern border checkpoints were shut down the previous weekend.
Moscow Springboarded into the fray, refuting such allegations vehemently. "We do not accept such accusations," stated Russian spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, characterizing Finland's stance as 'far-fetched'. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister, Alexander Grushko, warned Finland against the closure of the remaining border crossings, as such a decision would 'run counter to Finland's interests'.
Russia and Finland share a 1,340-kilometer lengthy border, prompting Finland to fortify its defensive line with a 200-kilometer long fence. Scheduled for completion in 2026, this project is indicative that Finland is readying itself for a potential escalation of hostilities.
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Migrants venturing on this perilous journey aim to seek refuge in Finland. The crossings are filled with African and Middle Eastern refugees, revealed by the Finnish Border Guard. The recent migrant wave is also linked to an alarming trend of increased asylum applications during the pandemic.
As the issue of migrant interference further complicates Finnish-Russian relations, various acts in response to Finland's NATO affiliation have emerged. Russia has established a new military district, Leningrad Military District, with security implications for the Baltic region. Fears of a build-up of troops and potential invasions have been expressed by analysts. Moscow has also considered steps to deflect Finland's proposal of a ban on property purchases by Russian nationals.
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The steep surge in asylum applications can be attributed to the social and economic turmoil that took place in various regions worldwide with the advent of the COVID-19 pandemic. The increased contextualization of refugees has put a new strain on border controls and the capability of receiving countries to integrate refugees. As Finland prepares to defend itself, questions about the ongoing implications for the European Union (EU) and its response tactics become crucial.
