Russia planning to deliver oil to India via unique supply arrangement
In August 2025, Russia’s oil supply to India has experienced a significant drop, with average daily shipments of Russian Urals crude falling approximately threefold—from about 1.18 million barrels per day (bpd) earlier in the year to around 400,000 bpd in August. This decrease is largely due to intensified European Union sanctions on Russian fuel imports, restrictions on Russian-linked Indian refineries like Nayara Energy, and impending U.S. tariffs targeting India’s crude purchases from Russia.
Earlier in 2025, India was one of the largest buyers of Russian crude, purchasing around 1.75 to 1.78 million bpd, which was roughly 38% of Russia’s crude exports by sea and about 41% of India’s crude intake compared to other sources like Iraq and Saudi Arabia. However, following the EU’s July 2025 sanctions against refineries such as Nayara (part-owned by Russia’s Rosneft) and upcoming U.S. tariffs starting August 28 on Indian goods, Indian refiners have been reluctant or unable to maintain prior intake levels.
The U.S. administration, under former President Trump’s policies, has imposed punitive 25% tariffs on Indian exports tied explicitly to Indian purchases of Russian oil, doubling the duties to encourage cessation of Russian oil imports. Some Indian refineries, including state-owned and private players like Reliance, maintained prior agreements with Russian oil producers and continued importing crude as of early August 2025, though pressures and uncertainties increased after EU and U.S. sanctions. Russia’s overall crude exports remain significant, but India’s share has visibly contracted in recent weeks due to these external pressures.
Meanwhile, in Ukraine, a Russian attack on the northern region of Sumy resulted in at least 14 injuries, including a family with three children. The potential deployment of German troops to Ukraine has sparked debate among political figures. Saxony's Minister President Michael Kretschmer is against the deployment of German ground troops in Ukraine, stating that the Bundeswehr lacks the prerequisites for ensuring Ukraine's security. SPD Bundestag member and defense expert Andreas Schwarz does not rule out the deployment of German soldiers to Ukraine in case of a peace agreement. The Parliamentary Commissioner of the Bundestag, Henning Otte, warns against overstraining the Bundeswehr with a possible deployment for peacekeeping in Ukraine.
In a separate development, Green Party foreign policy expert Omid Nouripour calls for more pressure on Russian President Vladimir Putin, stating that the conditions Putin has set so far are unacceptable and would mean the end of Ukraine. Europe must invest in its security to prevent future attacks on the EU or Ukraine, according to Kretschmer.
In a positive note, Russia has assured India of continued oil supplies despite Western sanctions. Roman Babuschkin, the business representative of the Russian Embassy in New Delhi, announced a meeting between President Vladimir Putin and Prime Minister Narendra Modi in New Delhi by the end of the year.
References:
- BBC News
- Reuters
- The Economic Times
- The Diplomat
- The Hindu
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