Russia's gutsy march towards Avdiivka takes a grim toll
Russia's troops continue their relentless push, but the carnage they leave behind is staggering. Satellite imagery, Ukrainian reports, and foreign analysts suggest an alarming number of Russian soldiers and equipment might be casualties of this conflict - a staggering 1250 plus, according to Ukrainian General Staff reports.
The Ukrainian General Staff maintains that fierce fighting persists on the ground. US experts such as the Institute for the Study of War note that Russia ismaking territorial gains by their advances. Yet, these gains comes at an exorbitant cost to Russia - the General Staff reports 1250 Russian soldiers killed within the last 24-hour period, a massive spike compared to the usual lower casualty figures.
As well, Ukraine reported above-average lossesof Russian equipment on the previous day - the General Staff of the Ukrainian army revealed destruction of 19 tanks, 25 armored transport vehicles, and 37 artillery systems.
The high casualty counts reflect the intense battles, with numerous Russian attacks reported across the eastern and southern regions of Ukraine, mainly in the city of Avdiivka and its surrounding areas in the Donbass - a reported 27 engagements occurred within the city. They were reportedly repelled. The General Staff's Saturday report revealed a minor decrease in battleground engagements since the previous day (82 battleground engagements).
Security analysts have been closely tracking the Russian forces' substantial losses of soldiers' lives in their quest to capture Avdiivka. Despite this, the Russian military leadership presses on, deploying tanks into the devastated city. These casualties have grown since October, but many tanks have been eliminated by Ukrainian artillery - estimated 220 tanks remain in Avdiivka alone, Ukrainian reports suggest. British and American intelligence services confirm Russia's minimal territorial gains at an enormous cost in lives and hardships.
The disregard for human life seen from the start of the conflict is evident, as approximately 360,000 Russians under contract for Moscow's army before the war shifted into Ukraine, over 315,000 are said to have been injured or lost their lives, according to US intelligence assessments. This translates to an 87% proportion of the initial army, indicating that few of the troops who initially joined are still unscathed or alive.
The extreme losses and casualties being suffered by Russian troops are forcing commanders to engage in heavy battles, in part to satisfy President Vladimir Putin's demand for a perceived victory in Ukraine prior to the spring "elections".
Australian Security Council (ASPI) analyst Dr. Michael Shoebridge underlines the Australians see a different viewpoint compared to public sentiment in the Western world. He states, "The situation on the ground in Ukraine is far more robust than what is often portrayed in the media." This sentiment is shared by German security expert Nico Lange, who emphasizes the importance of the air defense system in Ukraine's victory.
"Many forget that the majority of the tanks and infantry fighting vehicles are still functional and that plenty of these promised weapons have yet to be delivered," Lange told Die Welt. Such an arsenal includes 200 German Leopard-1 tanks, with only 30 released in Ukraine so far.
Western air defense equipment is currently proving beneficial in Ukraine's defensive campaign. President Volodymyr Zelensky praises the intercepting of ballistic missiles from Russia, hailing it as one of the successes of Ukraine's air defense system. "The Patriots, Nasams, Cheetahs, and other systems provided by our partners are functioning flawlessly," Zelensky said on Saturday, while urging the continued improvement of Ukraine's air defense.
In the recent nights, Russia has targeted Ukraine with swarms of combat drones. As was the case during the winter months, energy facilities are commonly targeted. This endeavor has proven more fruitful for Ukraine, whose air defense capabilities against drones have significantly improved since last winter. According to Zelensky, 104 of 112 Shahed drones were intercepted in a week, underscoring the strides made in drone defense.
Fundamental Insights:
- Casualty Counts: Satellite imagery, Ukrainian reports, and foreign analysts suggest Russia has suffered substantial casualties and equipment losses while attempting to capture Avdiivka. Although exact figures are not provided in our sources, anecdotal evidence suggests extreme figures.
- Equipment Losses: While no specific numbers of equipment losses are given, Ukraine reports destructing an unspecified "record" number of Russian armored vehicles in the Pokrovsk direction.
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Following the devastating casualties and significant losses of personnel and equipment, Ukraine intercepted a swarm of Russian drones targeting key energy supply facilities, according to President Volodymyr Zelensky. Describing the event, Zelensky noted that 104 of 112 attacking Shahed drones were successfully intercepted. Although the result was mostly successful, civilian damage and casualties occurred in major cities, including Kiev.
Simultaneously, Ukraine has been expressing the need for improved air defense capabilities in discussions with international partners. As Russia continues to bombard the country with numerous attacks, President Volodymyr Zelensky applauds the contribution of foreign allies, including the deployment of Western air defense equipment and 200 German Leopard-1 tanks.
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