Drafting a New Deal: Tackling the Ukraine Crisis
Russia might find Trump's peace proposal for Ukraine generous, yet it potentially falls short of satisfying Putin's demands.
Navigating the sticky negotiation landscape between the U.S. and Russia on the contentious Ukraine issue is no walk in the park. Case in point: President Trump has found himself in a tight spot, threatening a deadline for a deal he desperately needs while grappling with a counterpart who seems to be dragging their feet.
The saying, "It's easier to make a deal with Russia than Ukraine" might apply to Trump, considering Ukraine's reliance on U.S. aid and intelligence for their very survival. But doesn't necessarily mean Russia is more inclined to seal the deal. In fact, they seem to be playing the long game.
The divide between closing business deals and getting entangled in geopolitical quagmires has never been more pronounced. Trump is well versed in the art of pressure-tactics in real estate, yet his current mission is to persuade the Kremlin to agree to terms to end the war Putin has calculated will improve, not worsen, with time.
During Trump's brief scolding of Putin on Thursday, he posted a simple "Vladimir: STOP!" following Russian missile attacks on Kyiv that resulted in civilian casualties. But even the grim message seemed more about timing than casualties.
The Russia President has repeatedly snubbed the U.S. and Ukraine's 44-day-old proposal for a 30-day, unconditional ceasefire. Instead, they declared their own temporary truce for Easter—one that lasted a mere 30 hours and was allegedly violated around 5,000 times by Ukraine. Both sides have accused each other of breaching energy and infrastructure truces for March and April.
The hit-and-miss approach to ceasefires has left its mark on the trustworthiness of diplomatic agreements. Ukraine's allies point tantalizingly to the Easter truce as proof that Russia views ceasefires as an opportunity to rearm and wait for their moment to return to battle.
The primary challenge with Trump's proposed deal is the secrecy shrouding its terms. A lasting pause in the fighting seems less likely, given the course of events over the past month. A broader U.S.-Russia detente might be a White House wish, but without an enduring settlement for Ukraine, the resulting fissure in the Transatlantic alliance could dismay many establishment Republicans, unsettle countless Americans, weaken the dollar, and cripple the U.S.'s economic and geopolitical standing.
The second puzzle is what Trump expects President Zelensky to concede. Despite clarifying that he isn't demanding Ukraine recognize Russia-annexed Crimea, the specifics of the proposed deal remain murky.
Crimea, a peninsula linked to Russian-occupied parts of Ukraine but separated from Russia by mere bridge, may be up for grabs in the deal. Yet, European and Ukrainian sanctions would continue to isolate Crimea after any peace deal, and both Europe and Kyiv have made it clear they won't accept its recognition as part of Russia. By offering Putin a frail fig leaf of respectability, Trump may be offering an insubstantial bargaining chip.
The question remains: Is a deal that freezes the frontlines in Moscow's best interest? Putin's hesitant diplomatic maneuvers hint at a belief that his best battlefield days are yet to come. The oil price may drop, and Moscow might face manpower crunches ahead. However, these troubles are trivial compared to Kyiv's recruitment challenges and the likely funding drought when Biden-era cash runs out next year.
Moscow's vague red lines, voiced by various officials, will spell trouble for any long-term peace. They're against the deployment of European troops and the continuation of foreign aid to Ukraine. Russia seeks immediate sanctions relief, a non-starter for the Europeans and Ukraine.
The crux of the matter is that Putin seems to believe time is on his side, while Trump keeps sounding the alarm clock. Their contrasting views on time will not yield a lasting deal. The Kremlin seems to have calculated it can, over months, hive off tiny concessions from the White House, piece by piece, building a geopolitical picture that favors them. After the first 90 days of Trump's Presidency, the world has already swung in Moscow's direction.
One thing is certain—the longer Moscow talks, the sweeter the deal looks. The longer the fighting continues, the better the battlefield prospects seem. It's in Russia's interest to keep negotiations alive, even to sign on to an early, chaotic deal they might later renege on. But there's no indication they actually want talks that result in a permanent ceasefire or an end to the fighting.
- Despite the deadline set by President Trump, Putin appears to be playing a long game in the Ukraine crisis, potentially more concerned with future gains than immediate settlements.
- The hit-and-miss approach to ceasefires has raised doubts about the trustworthiness of diplomatic agreements, with Russia allegedly using ceasefire opportunities to rearm and wait for a more favorable battlefield moment.
- The proposed deal between the U.S. and Russia, cloaked in secrecy, may not lead to a lasting pause in the fighting, as it could potentially freeze the frontlines in Moscow's favor while keeping the conflict simmering.
- The world's attention is focused on the Ukraine crisis as it has the potential to significantly impact politics, general news, and world affairs, with the possibility of a deal that may benefiting Russia over Ukraine.
- The ongoing conflict in Ukraine is a complex issue that intertwines business deals, geopolitical maneuvering, and war-and-conflicts, making it a challenging issue for both Trump and Putin to navigate, particularly given Russia's reluctance to seize the opportunities for ceasefires.
