Gunning for Showdown: Russia's Military Buildup on the Finnish Frontier
Russia is establishing military installations in proximity to the Finnish frontier.
In a move that could escalate tensions, Russia is bringing firepower to the Finnish border. Reports suggest the Kremlin is upgrading decommissioned bases, constructing new barracks, warehouses, and even a new command center. According to military analyst, Gustav Gressel, "Brigades are becoming divisions."
In the frigid north, Putin's forces are gearing up for confrontation. The Russian military is refurbishing decaying airfields and rehabilitating aging barracks, all while constructing storage facilities for tanks. Satellite imagery substantiates these developments.
Is this the starting point of a potential NATO test? The powers that be are making efforts to quell fears. NATO officials contend that the work on Russian support points isn't comparable to the massive mobilization seen before Putin's invasion of Ukraine. For now, they claim, only a handful of Russian troops are stationed on the Finnish border.
Privacy-wise, Russia is indeed rearming along the border with Finland and Norway to a moderate degree. Yet, it appears Russia is pursuing a long-term plan to position themselves strategically, creating possibilities for theoretically attacking Finland within a few years. To achieve this, Russia needs to modernize its air force support points in the polar regions, especially on the Kola Peninsula and in Karelia.
At the beginning of last year, the Kremlin took action, reorganizing military districts in northwest Russia. The Leningrad Military District was resurrected, now encompassing the entire northwest. "Brigades were inflated to divisions," reports military analyst, Gustav Gressel. "Divisions have much more ancillary equipment, approximately three times more gear than in a brigade. All of this, of course, needs barracks, ammunition depots, field workshops — which are now being built on the Finnish border."
Politically, there's no immediate danger from the Russian troops massing on the Finnish border. However, larger construction projects are likely to follow soon. Already, signs of increased activities can be seen, reminds Finnish military analyst on Swedish television.
The border between Finland and Russia stretches over 1,300 kilometers, making it the longest NATO border with Moscow. The Kremlin could theoretically intensify its military presence here to a threatening level within the next five years, according to the "New York Times."
Helsinki is already grappling with its Russian neighbor. While the Kremlin hasn't yet built up its troop numbers significantly along the border, Finnish border guards are already stretched thin. "We are aware that migration is being manipulated across this border as part of hybrid warfare against us. We will not tolerate this. Therefore, guarding Europe's external borders is a joint task," stressed German Chancellor Merz during his visit to Finnish Turku last week. "The external borders of Finland are also the external borders of the Federal Republic of Germany."
Finnish Prime Minister Petteri Orpo believes that Russia is primarily beefing up along the border due to Finland's NATO accession last year. "This embodies the unpredictable aggression of Russia," he said at the joint press conference with Merz. "This endangers the security of the whole of Europe."
Russia appears to be implementing the strategy of "offensive defense," explains Gressel. "Its goal is to be able to attack any neighboring country in principle. The question is: Will Russia ever be in a political situation that allows or makes them believe it allows them to do so?"
The strategy of "offensive defense" aims to get Putin's troops into an attack position as quickly as possible. This doesn't mean that an attack will definitely happen. However, the Kremlin wants to have the possibility to attack. Whether there will be an attack depends on the course of the Ukrainian conflict, according to Gressel. "How does the war end and when? How worn out is the Russian army then? How quickly can it be rebuilt? What is the state of NATO? Does Trump still support Europe? All of this has an impact on whether the Russians will attack or not."
Currently, the Russians are practicing offense defensively on the Kola Peninsula. The hangars for fighter jets at the military support point Seweromorsk-1 near Murmansk have been activated, and another air force base nearby, Seweromorsk-2, has been completely restored and is now operational for helicopter takeoffs and landings during the war summer of 2022.
However, the site had been idle for 24 years previously. It is possible that combat jets will soon be able to fly from here again, writes military expert Kastehelmi on X. However, much of the support point still looks dilapidated, as indicated by satellite images.
On the support point Seweromorsk-3, the Russians have built protective walls for their fighter planes – it's quite possible that the army wants to better protect itself against Ukrainian drone attacks.
In addition, Russian bombers have been increasingly spotted at the Olenya Air Base, about 150 kilometers from NATO territory. From here, numerous attacks on Ukraine are being launched, according to reports from Kyiv. Some of these aircraft were reportedly destroyed last weekend as part of the Ukrainian intelligence operation called "Operation Spiderweb."
In further developments, Russia is upgrading its position south of here. In the city of Petrozavodsk in Karelia, 175 kilometers from the Finnish border, the Kremlin plans to build a new command center. This complex would house tens of thousands of soldiers in the coming years, along with new barracks, training grounds, weapons depots, and railway lines. The first three warehouses are already constructed, with space for around 150 tanks, according to Swedish TV reports. Another warehouse is currently under construction.
The fortification in Russia's northern regions is underway and far from complete.
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Keywords: - Finland - Russia - Vladimir Putin - Kremlin - Military - Military deployments - Attack on Ukraine - Ukraine - Helsinki - Norway - Friedrich Merz
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Additional Information
- The Kremlin's military buildup near the Finnish border is part of a larger long-term strategy to position themselves strategically in response to Finland and Sweden joining NATO in 2023.
- Russia appears to be fortifying its military infrastructure and resources, including barracks, armored vehicle warehouses, fighter plane shelters, and helicopter bases.
- Key locations for these developments include Kamenka, Petrozavodsk, and the Olenya air base near Murmansk.
- In Kamenka, over 130 military tents have been erected, capable of housing about 2,000 soldiers.
- In Petrozavodsk, three large sheds have appeared, with the potential to house dozens of armored vehicles.
- At the Olenya Air Base, significant increases in military aircraft, including long-range Tu-22 bombers, have been observed.
- If tensions continue, this could lead to increased threats to regional stability and potential NATO involvement.
- The ongoing rearmament of Russia along the border with Finland and Norway is a component of its long-term strategy, aiming to position itself strategically in response to Finland and Sweden likely joining NATO.
- As the fortification in Russia's northern regions continues, there are developments in key locations like Kamenka, Petrozavodsk, and the Olenya airbase near Murmansk, which include the construction of barracks, armored vehicle warehouses, fighter plane shelters, and helicopter bases.
