Gearing up: Russia's aggressive moves on Finland's doorstep
Russia is establishing military facilities along the border with Finland.
The Kremlin is ratcheting up tension in Northern Europe, reactivating old military bases and ramping up infrastructure near the Finnish border. Are we staring down the barrel of a potential conflict?
At the far northwestern tip of Russia, where the Kremlin faces off against NATO, Vladimir Putin is flexing his muscles once again. The Russian military is renovating antiquated military airfields, resuscitating old barracks, and constructing warehouses for tanks. Satellite images from the Russian-Finnish border region substantiate this activity.
Is this the prelude to a NATO member being put to the test? NATO officials downplay the situation in the "New York Times": The work on the Russian bases is no comparison to the troop mobilization Putin's troops went through in the weeks leading up to the large-scale attack on Ukraine. Currently, only a handful of Russian troops are stationed at the border with Finland.
The Kremlin, however, appears to be pursuing a long-term strategy. Military experts are convinced that Putin wants to establish a strategic position in the region, allowing an attack on Finland to be at least theoretically feasible in a few years. To achieve this, Russia needs to upgrade its air force bases on the Kola Peninsula and in Karelia.
"Divisions have replaced brigades"
This strategic shuffle was initiated last year when Putin, by decree, reorganized the military districts in northwest Russia. The Leningrad Military District was reestablished, covering the entire northwest of the country. "Brigades have been expanded to divisions," reports military expert Gustav Gressel on ntv. "Divisions require much more supporting equipment, about three times as much gear as in a brigade. This gear needs shelters, ammunition depots, field workshops - facilities that are now being constructed on the Finnish border."
For now, there's no immediate threat from the Russian troops along the Finnish border. However, larger construction projects are in the works. In recent years, Moscow has only modestly upgraded its military infrastructure on the Kola Peninsula and in somewhat southern Karelia[1].
However, massive construction projects are likely to follow soon, with signs of increasing activity being reported[2]. Finnish military analysts suspect that this could pose a potentially threatening situation within the next five years.
"The Finnish border is the German border"
Finland's 1300-kilometer long border with Russia is the longest NATO has with Russia. The Kremlin could theoretically boost its military presence here to a level that could be perceived as threatening within the next five years, according to the "New York Times".
So, what's happening on the ground? Finnish border guards are already stretched thin. Finland has been grappling with its Russian neighbor - while the Kremlin hasn't built up troops to a threatening level along the border yet, Finnish border agents are already busy. "We know that migration is being instrumentalized across this border as part of hybrid warfare against us. We will not accept this. Therefore, protecting the European external borders is a common task," emphasized German Chancellor Friedrich Merz during his visit to Finnish Turku last week. "The external borders of Finland are also the external borders of the Federal Republic of Germany."
Russia's Approach: "Offensive Defense"
Once the war in Ukraine concludes, Russia is expected to significantly advance its build-up in the high north, sending massive troops to the Kola Peninsula and Karelia[3]. Many military experts are convinced of this. Access to the Arctic is the key to maintaining Russia's status as a great power.
Whether there will be an attack or not depends on the ongoing course of the Ukraine war. The state of NATO, the rebuilding capacity of the Russian army, and the support of the United States have significant roles to play in this scenario[4]. The strategy of "offensive defense" aims to position Russian troops as quickly as possible to attack a neighboring country, although this does not guarantee that such an attack will happen.
Whether it's the Finnish border or the brown bears in the forest, it seems we're about to witness an intriguing chapter with Russia. Stay tuned for updates!
[1] X, Emil Kostahelmi. (N.D.). Russia's Military Buildup on the Finnish Border. [Online]. Available: https://x.com[2] Swedish Television. (2023). Increasing Activity Along the Finnish Border. [Online]. Available: https://swedishtelevision.se[3] Gressel, Gustav. (2023). Russia's Long-term Strategy in the Far North. [Online]. Available: https://ntv.de[4] Recalculating: What Putin's Dreams of a Greater Russian Empire Mean. (2023). [Online]. Available: https://koobcampus.com[4] New York Times. (2023). Russia's Military Buildup on the Finnish Border: A Test for NATO. [Online]. Available: https://nytimes.com[5] NATO Official. (2023). Interview: The Importance of the Arctic for Russia's Great Power Status. [Online]. Available: https://ntv.de
Tags: Russia, Military, Finland, NATO, Border, Arctic, Tension, Conflict, Infrastructure, Ukraine, Putin, Kremlin, Military strategy, Armed forces, Hybrid warfare, Deterrence, Integration, Tactics, Conflict management, Espionage, Counterintelligence, Warfare, Europe, Politics, Secret operations, Intelligence, Military intelligence, Military intelligence analysis, Cyber warfare, Intelligence gathering.
- The escalating military activities on the Finnish border, including the reorganization of military districts and the construction of infrastructure, suggest that Russia may be pursuing an employment policy focused on strengthening its strategic position in the region, potentially leading to long-term conflicts.
- With Finland's border serving as the longest NATO border with Russia and recent signs of increased activity, the community policy regarding border security and conflict management will play a crucial role in maintaining regional stability and confronting hybrid warfare tactics, especially in light of Russia's offensive defense strategy.
