Russia intensifies attacks along the Ukrainian frontier, seemingly challenging Trump's stance. How might this development impact the ongoing conflict?
TRASH-TALKING TOON RESUMING HOSTILITIES:
Heads up! The artillery barrage from Mother Russia's army has been heating up along the Ukraine front line, according to social media chatter from Ukrainian commanders, intelligence from the General Staff in Kyiv, and soldiers spilling the beans to CNN.
It's unclear if this marks the beginning of Putin's boys' major spring assault, a move Ukraine's been bracing for quite some time. But it sure looks like Putin doesn't give a rat's ass about upsetting US President Donnie Duck, who's supposedly going to make his decision on whether the Kremlin's serious about peace within just a few weeks, as per Secretary of State Marco Rubio's recent statement.
Where's the Action Heating Up?
For months, the fiercest skirmishes have been popping off to the south of the town of Pokrovsk, a former strategic stronghold for Ukraine's armed forces in the Donetsk region.
Ukraine's forces have managed a handful of small tactical victories since the start of the year, pushing back some of the Russian advance towards Pokrovsk, bringing it to within a stone's throw of the town center. But according to a Ukrainian reconnaissance officer on the ground, over the last 10 days, Mother Russia's boys have gone on the offensive again, beefing up their forces for a future assault.
"We're keeping an eye on it with our drones and we're picking up chatter about it over the radio," the anonymous officer told CNN. But with Pokrovsk heavily fortified and the military supplies previously based there largely relocated, Mother Russia's main objective in the area could be to push westward, rather than north.
Ukrainian troops have shared fears on social media of possible encirclement in one location and a breach of the defensive line in another. One soldier going by the call sign Muchnoi wrote on Telegram that the frontline in the area has entered an active phase. "The Russians will not stop," he warned.
The objective of the advance, he said, is a town called Novopavlivka. "They will enter the Dnipropetrovsk region – this is one of the key tasks set by the Russian command." Stepping into Dnipropetrovsk would be a significant move because it would be the first time Russian troops have set foot there. Indeed, it would be the first new Ukrainian region to come under partial Russian control since the early weeks of the full-scale invasion over three years ago.
Dnipropetrovsk officials report that people living along the border are already being evacuated as Putin's forces inch closer to the region. For Putin – and quite possibly American negotiators as well – any Russian control over a part of Dnipropetrovsk could be seen as a handy bargaining chip in future negotiations.
Hasty Moves Along the Line?
Luhansk is Ukraine's easternmost region, where Putin's forces have the most control, with only a few pockets remaining in Ukrainian hands. Here, too, Russian troops have been making steady gains in recent weeks, particularly in the north of the town of Lyman, a major railway hub and support base for Ukraine's forces.
"It's tough; we need to focus on stabilizing the front and systematically knocking out the enemy, or the rot will spread," one Ukrainian officer wrote on Telegram.
Data analysis by CNN of combat engagements recorded by Ukraine's General Staff shows an increase in Russian activity over the last two weeks along all parts of the front line. While CNN can't confirm the numbers, and they're unlikely to be definitive, the data offers clear evidence of an upward shift from March 23 onwards.
Before that date, the average number of daily clashes in March had been around 140 (excluding an outlier on March 11). Since then, while tallies have fluctuated, the average has been around 180 clashes per day, an increase of about 30%.
The data includes the Kursk region in Russia, where Ukraine is now only holding on to a few villages along the border, after a slow but successful Russian rollback of Kyiv's surprise gains last summer. The ground advances are also seeing Russia make inroads into Ukraine's neighboring Sumy region, creating small no-man's-land situations where neither side is fully in control.
Further complicating matters, Ukraine has infiltrated a sliver of Russia's Belgorod region, a move Kyiv has confirmed for the first time this week.
How Are the Russians Fighting?
Ukrainian soldiers report a variety of Russian tactics in recent weeks. In the south of Donetsk region, a Ukrainian officer with the call sign Alex describes Russian troops advancing in columns consisting of a mix of armored and open-top vehicles – about four to five infantry fighting vehicles and tanks, while "the rest are trucks, cars, and golf carts."
He's skeptical of the prospects for significant Russian advances if current maneuvers reveal a real shortage of armor. "Yes, they have a lot of manpower, several times more than we do, but whatever you say, in a 21st-century war, it's impossible to build on successes and launch a rapid offensive without mechanized means of delivering and supporting infantry," Alex wrote on Telegram.
Further west, close to the Dnipro River, where Russian forces last week gained control of the small settlement of Lobkove, a Ukrainian commander with a strike drone squad told CNN he was observing a build-up of manpower between 10-15 kilometers (6-9 miles) behind the line of contact.
"The Russians are operating in small tactical groups of five to seven men, maximum 10 people. As soon as it's foggy or rainy, they start advancing using bad weather as cover from our drones."
As spring progresses and the weather dries out, tactics will change, the drone commander says. "They can't use heavy vehicles at the moment. It's too wet; they'll get stuck. As soon as the land dries up, they'll make their move; it's not in doubt, they'll charge for sure."
Reality Checks
Despite the gloomy assessments, it's important to keep things in perspective. The amount of territory Russia is capturing remains minuscule. For instance, its forces southwest of Pokrovsk, bearing down on Dnipropetrovsk region, are only about 45 kilometers (28 miles) further advanced than they were one year ago.
In fact, Britain's Ministry of Defence, in common with other analysts, assesses Russia's rate of advance to have been in steady decline for six months, from around 730 square kilometers captured in November last year to just 143 last month. Part of this might be due to the challenges of warfighting in winter, though the US military's senior commander in Europe, Gen. Christopher Cavoli, in an optimistic testimony to Congress last week, said Kyiv's forces had "assumed very strong defensive positions," and were "well dug in."
"It is very hard to envision Ukraine collapsing and losing that conflict," Cavoli concluded.
Even so, land warfare analyst Nick Reynolds, of the Royal United Services Institute in London, cautions against thinking that because Russia has not taken much territory, it is not achieving anything. Russia's territorial claims will not be achieved through military advance, tree line by tree line, village by village, he says.
"The aim is attrition, and the goal is not immediate. The goal is to kill people, to destroy equipment, to suck in resources, to bankrupt the Ukrainian state, and to break its will to fight."
Even weak Russian offensives, he says, require some defense by Ukraine, which in turn allows for better mapping of Ukrainian defensive positions, providing targets for artillery or glide bomb attacks.
Prognosis
Even in a best-case scenario, Europe's stepped-up efforts to rearm Ukraine, amid doubts over US military support, will likely take a few years to come to fruition. While Ukraine's own defense industry has made great strides, it remains more economically dependent on its allies than Russia's, analysts say.
Under pressure from Washington, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky remains publicly committed to an end to the war, as long as any peace agreement is just and secure, and does not allow Russia to resume fighting later.
For its part, the Kremlin says it wants peace too, but only if the "root causes" of the conflict are addressed, which in essence means Ukraine must fall back unequivocally into Moscow's sphere of influence.
But Putin's announcement last week of the largest conscription round in more than 10 years, and his stated ambition to build an army with 1.5 million active servicemen, along with an aerial onslaught that shows no signs of slowing, point more to a campaign of attrition than any intention to stop.
For fighters on the front lines, even high-ranking officers, peace talks mean little.
"Trust me, when you're sitting there at the front, you don't think about them. There's an order to follow, and there's a desire to survive," one told CNN.
Victoria Butenko contributed reporting.
Enrichment Data:
The ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine involves military activity in several key areas:
- Kharkiv Oblast: Russian forces have launched limited offensive operations in northern Kharkiv Oblast, aiming to push Ukrainian forces back from the international border with Russia's Belgorod Oblast. Despite their efforts, they have not made confirmed advances.
- Lyman Direction: Fighting persists, with Russian forces attempting to advance on Slovyansk without success.
- Kupyansk Direction: Russian forces are conducting ground assaults but have not made significant progress.
- Sumy Oblast: Russian forces are active in northern Sumy Oblast, aiming to create a buffer zone along the international border.
- Donetsk Region: Russian forces have occupied several settlements, pushing closer to the administrative border between Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk regions.
The conflict has been widespread, with significant military activity in the east and ongoing tension across southern and central Ukraine. The goals of the fighting include territorial gain, attrition, and breaking the will of Ukraine to continue fighting. Although the amount of territory Russia has captured remains small, its goals are not necessarily about capturing vast amounts of land; rather, they are about achieving attrition, weakening Ukraine's military, and forcing concessions in future negotiations. European support to rearm Ukraine is projected to take years to materialize, and Ukraine remains more economically dependent on its allies than Russia.
- The ongoing military activity between Russia and Ukraine has extended to easternmost Luhansk, a region where Putin's forces have been gaining ground, particularly in the north of Lyman.
- Despite the territorial gains being minimal, Putin's ambition to build an army with 1.5 million active servicemen, coupled with the recent conscription round, suggests a strategy of attrition rather than an intention to cease fighting.
- The average number of daily clashes along the front line has increased by about 30% since March 23, with data analysis indicating an upward shift in Russian activity across Europe, particularly in the Kursk and Sumy regions of Ukraine.
