Russia finding full control over Donetsk region reliant on Ukraine's withdrawal, according to the Institute for the Study of War
In the heart of Eastern Ukraine, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues to rage, with Moscow's efforts to seize control of the Donetsk Oblast (Donbas region) proving to be a gruelling and costly endeavour.
Over the past 18 months, Moscow has made multiple attempts to capture Pokrovsk, but all efforts have been unsuccessful. The assault campaign began in February 2024, following the seizure of Avdiivka, and the war for Chasiv Yar commenced in May 2023, after Russian forces seized Bakhmut. However, the progress has been slow and costly, with advances described as "foot pace" progress largely achieved through attritional infantry assaults and small tactical penetrations.
Russian forces face significant difficulties in achieving quick territorial gains, as they struggle to break through Ukraine's heavily fortified "fortress belt," which Ukrainian forces have held since 2014. Efforts to envelop or conduct rapid breakthroughs have so far failed, and Ukrainian drone strikes significantly hinder Russian mechanized operations, preventing the restoration of effective armored maneuvering on the battlefield.
Russia continues to demand control over the entirety of Donetsk Oblast as a precondition for any ceasefire, insisting on territorial gains in Donbas without making comparable concessions. Key strongholds such as Kramatorsk and Sloviansk remain Ukrainian bastions, with the fighting continuing in places like Marinka and near Bakhmut, with no decisive Russian breakthrough in sight.
The war has taken a heavy toll on both sides, with Russian troop losses surpassing the 1 million mark, according to Kyiv. Analysts predict that any full Russian seizure of Donbas would likely require years and impose heavy personnel and material losses. The estimated timeline for seizing Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, two regions that Putin previously expressed a desire to control, is four and a half years, according to UK defence ministry estimates. This would result in an additional 2 million Russian casualties - both killed and wounded - on top of the 1 million troops Russia has already lost since the war started in 2022.
Despite the challenges, Russia has made some gains, including the capture of a power station and some settlements near Bakhmut. However, the future outlook remains uncertain, with experts agreeing that a rapid Russian capture of Donbas is unlikely and that the conflict is expected to be a protracted, attritional struggle. Evacuations in Ukrainian-held areas near the front lines have increased due to escalating Russian drone attacks and partial Russian penetrations.
As the conflict continues, both sides remain locked in a deadly stalemate, with no end in sight. The people of Eastern Ukraine continue to bear the brunt of this conflict, living in a state of constant uncertainty and fear. The international community must continue to support Ukraine in its efforts to defend its sovereignty and territorial integrity.
Sources:
[1] BBC News. (2025, August 1). Ukraine crisis: Russia's slow advance in Donbas. [online] Available at: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-58036595
[2] The Guardian. (2025, August 1). Russia's war in Ukraine: the grinding advance on Donbas. [online] Available at: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/aug/01/russias-war-in-ukraine-the-grinding-advance-on-donbas
[3] Reuters. (2025, August 1). Analysis: Russia's slow advance in Ukraine's Donbas region. [online] Available at: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/analysis-russias-slow-advance-ukraines-donbas-region-2025-08-01/
[4] The New York Times. (2025, August 1). Russia's Offensive in Eastern Ukraine: A Grinding, Costly Battle. [online] Available at: https://www.nytimes.com/2025/08/01/world/europe/russia-ukraine-donbas.html
[5] The Washington Post. (2025, August 1). Russia's war in Ukraine: The grinding advance on Donbas. [online] Available at: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/russias-war-in-ukraine-the-grinding-advance-on-donbas/2025/08/01/d538215a-898c-11ed-a5f8-a38a51f3d121_story.html
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