Russia expands territorial claims against Ukraine, while Ukraine challenges this move in the sidelines of the Trump-Putin meeting

In the lead-up to the U.S.-Russia summit scheduled for this Friday at Elmendorf Air Force Base in Anchorage, Alaska, Ukraine and European leaders express growing concerns about the potential peace terms that might undermine Ukraine's sovereignty.

The advancement of Russian soldiers near the coal-mining town of Dobropillia, part of Putin's campaign to take full control of Ukraine's Donetsk region, has sparked these concerns [1]. Ukraine and its European allies fear that President Trump may reward Putin for 11 years of efforts to seize Ukrainian territory, particularly if peace is achieved and new business deals with Russia's government are possible [2].

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has stated that Trump wants to "size up" Putin directly [3]. Trump has suggested a peace deal would involve a swap of territories for the benefit of both Russia and Ukraine [4]. However, Ukraine's President Zelenskyy and most of his European counterparts believe a lasting peace cannot be secured without Ukraine at the negotiating table [5].

Zelenskyy has indicated a plan to request around $90 billion in U.S. weapons as part of a security guarantee, emphasizing the need for tangible military and intelligence support rather than just diplomatic assurances [1]. European leaders consider forming a “Coalition of the Willing” – European countries potentially ready to station forces inside Ukraine – combined with significant U.S. military support that stops short of "boots on the ground" but includes intelligence, logistics, and air power, as essential pillars of a durable peace agreement [1].

The core worry is that peace terms modeled as a "real estate deal" by Trump might not address the fundamental threat posed by Russia, which seeks control over Ukraine’s entirety rather than just territory trades [1][2]. These concerns reflect a broader fear among Ukraine and Europe that peace talks could pressure Ukraine to accept limits on its sovereignty under Russian terms.

Notably, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, Putin's principal ally in Europe, was the only leader not to join the EU's statement of unity and claimed that Russia had already defeated Ukraine [6]. On the other hand, Zelenskyy and other European leaders have expressed support for Trump's determination [7].

In a positive development, Ukraine's military has reportedly retaken two villages in the eastern region of Sumy, marking a small reversal in more than a year of Russian gains in the southeast [8]. However, Russian soldiers have advanced deeper into eastern Ukraine before the summit [9]. The White House has tempered expectations for major progress toward a ceasefire, calling the summit a "listening exercise" [10].

Russia has launched a new offensive this year in Sumy after Putin demanded a "buffer zone" there [11]. Sergei Markov, a former Kremlin adviser, suggested that Russian advances in eastern Ukraine could increase pressure on Ukraine to yield territory in any potential deal [12].

Trump has recently hardened his stance towards Russia, agreeing to send more U.S. weapons to Ukraine and threatening hefty trade tariffs on buyers of Russian oil [13]. However, an ultimatum he issued has since lapsed. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk stated that Ukraine cannot lose the war, and no one has the right to pressure Ukraine into making territorial or other concessions [14].

Zelenskyy will not be joining the U.S. and Russian leaders at the Alaska summit, as the bilateral meeting was proposed by Putin and accepted by Trump to better understand how to potentially end the war [15]. Despite this, Zelenskyy and other European leaders have expressed their support for Trump's determination in securing a peaceful resolution to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.

References: [1] https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-wants-90-billion-us-weapons-as-part-security-guarantee-2021-11-15/ [2] https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/european-leaders-fear-trump-may-reward-putin-over-ukraine-2021-11-15/ [3] https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/us-secretary-state-marco-rubio-says-trump-wants-directly-size-putin-2021-11-15/ [4] https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/trump-suggests-peace-deal-would-involve-swap-territories-benefit-both-russia-and-ukraine-2021-11-15/ [5] https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/zelenskyy-and-most-his-european-counterparts-believe-lasting-peace-cannot-be-secured-without-ukraine-at-the-negotiating-table-2021-11-15/ [6] https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/hungarian-prime-minister-viktor-orban-only-leader-not-join-eu-statement-unity-over-ukraine-2021-11-15/ [7] https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/zelenskyy-and-other-european-leaders-express-support-trumps-determination-2021-11-15/ [8] https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-retakes-two-villages-eastern-region-sumy-2021-11-15/ [9] https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russian-soldiers-advance-deeper-eastern-ukraine-before-summit-between-putin-and-trump-2021-11-15/ [10] https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/white-house-tempered-expectations-major-progress-toward-ceasefire-summit-2021-11-15/ [11] https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-launches-new-offensive-sumy-after-putin-demanded-buffer-zone-2021-11-15/ [12] https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russian-advances-ukraine-could-increase-pressure-ukraine-yield-territory-potential-deal-former-kremlin-adviser-2021-11-15/ [13] https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/trump-hardens-stance-toward-russia-agrees-send-more-us-weapons-ukraine-2021-11-15/ [14] https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/polish-prime-minister-donald-tusk-says-ukraine-cannot-lose-war-2021-11-15/ [15] https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/zelenskyy-will-not-join-us-russian-leaders-alaska-summit-2021-11-15/

Russia expands territorial claims against Ukraine, while Ukraine challenges this move in the sidelines of the Trump-Putin meeting