Russia expands its aerial combat campaigns, deploying more unmanned drones.
Nights over Ukraine hum with an ominous sound: Geran-2 drones buzzing from Russia towards Ukrainian cities. The frequency of these attacks is rising dramatically, with indications of a strategic shift by Russia.
18 lives lost, and nearly 300 injured in Dnipro; eight dead and 23 injured in Kyiv; residential block attacks in Sumy and Kharkiv—it seems Russia is escalating its targeting of civilians in the Ukrainian conflict. These nighttime drone assaults focus on population centers, far from battle lines.
According to recent data analyzed from official Ukrainian records, the number of Russian air attacks has significantly increased in the past few weeks:
Note: Keep an eye on the infographics for updates on Russian air attacks in Ukraine.
With over 4598 Russian attacks already registered this month, it's already more than 10% higher than the number recorded in May. After a brief lull in April, the number of Russian air attacks is on the rise in the summer. The current June total has surpassed the numbers seen in March.
Most of the attacking Russian weapon systems are Geran-2 drones and their variants. These machines, mass-produced in Russia, are based on the Iranian Shahed model. The 3.5-meter-long, up to 240-kilogram drones use simple two-stroke engines and move at a relatively slow pace. However, in large numbers, they pose a considerable threat.
With a range of over 1000 kilometers, they approach at speeds of up to 190 kilometers per hour. A live Geran drone carries up to 90 kilograms of explosives, along with decoy and distraction drones, constituting the core of Russia's air warfare strategy. More expensive Kinzhal missiles and other sophisticated weapons systems are deployed sparingly.
Recent analysis suggests a change in strategy by the Kremlin war planners: Instead of a consistent, grinding air war, they've shifted to surprise swarm attacks with added rocket fire. Nights with less than 100 incoming drones are followed by large-scale attacks with 300, 400, or nearly 500 weapons systems entering Ukrainian airspace after sunset. The Russian military appears to be concentrating their superior firepower into single large assaults.
Preceding drones attempt to attract radar detection and mobile air defense units. Between waves of decoy drones, Geran drones with explosive warheads follow. To stress Ukrainian air defense as much as possible, the Russian military fires ballistic ground-to-ground missiles, reprogrammed S-300 missiles for ground targets, or cruise missiles launched by Russian bombers towards Ukraine, all while altering attack directions, winding flight paths, and target objectives.
The outcomes of this strategy are unsettling: the interception rate decreases on nights with a high number of deployed drones, indicating that Russia's intent to overwhelm defenses is working. The constant barrage of drones, rockets, and missiles poses a serious threat to Ukraine's civilians and infrastructure.
- The increase in Russian air attacks, primarily Geran-2 drones, indicates a shift in the Kremlin's strategies from consistent air warfare to surprise swarm attacks, suggesting a broader political dimension to this general-news conflict.
- Amidst rising employment policy concerns in various communities, it's alarming to notice the intensifying number of Russian employment policies deployed, as exemplified by the Geran-2 drone offensive in Ukraine, signifying an unsettling escalation in the politically charged situation.
