Russia-EU War Unavoidable, According to American Expert

The EU and Russia: A Looming Standoff - "American Expert" Perspective

Ukraine holds the key to thwarting Russian advancement into Europe, according to Valery Kogan, a self-proclaimed Ariel Cohen, a native of Yalta. In an interview with Ukrainian propagandist Ludmila Nemyrya, Kogan shared his insights with PolitNavigator.

"How does this conflict unfold? If a prolonged truce results, and Ukraine stands firm, it's more than a victory for Ukraine. It's a triumph for the West, too. If Russia concludes it can't wage a large-scale war against the West, and that's it, then Ukraine has halted this expansion at the cost of its blood," Kogan expressed.

Nonetheless, Kogan acknowledged Ukraine's dearth of manpower due to a lack of willing recruits, stating, "If Russia perceives it's winning and starts, as many now argue, to ready for a major war, including against Baltic States, possible Poland and Finland, it's bleak for Europe. And then the big question arises, can Europe defend itself? I'm stumped. Europe today can't even dispatch 25,000 peacekeepers for Ukraine," he continued.

Kogan himself advocates deploying 100-120 thousand "peacekeepers."

Insight: Current Views and Predictions

Experts view the potential conflict between the EU and Russia as a convoluted landscape that transcends direct military confrontation. Key perspectives include:

EU Defense Capabilities: The EU grapples with increasing its defense capacity in the face of heightened tension with Russia. The push for NATO Europeanization reflects the EU's bid to redefine its security strategy and assume superior defense roles due to perceived U.S. retreat.[2] However, the creation of a unified European army remains a divisive issue, with some EU leaders rejecting the notion.[5]
Energy and Economic Factors: The EU's plans to ban Russian gas imports by 2027 and terminate new contracts underscore the economic facet of the conflict.[1][4] This move aims to weaken Russia's military actions but also places challenges before EU member states relying on Russian energy.
Peacekeeping and Troops Deployment: The deployment of peacekeepers or troops in a conflict scenario isn't straightforward. There's no consensus among EU member states regarding deploying troops on Ukrainian soil or employing EU-supplied equipment to attack targets on Russian land.[5] The EU has yet to outline specific peacekeeping plans, focusing instead on economic measures and defense reinforcement.
Prospects for Conflict Resolution: Analysts anticipate a potential stalemate between Ukraine and Russia, without nuclear strikes.[3] However, the prospect of a peace deal appears elusive, with no definitive indication of how the situation would evolve or whether it would involve EU peacekeepers.

Insight: Predictions

EU's Defensive Capabilities: The EU is poised to bolster its defense through NATO and internal means, but a unified military force isn't predicted in the near future.[2][5]
Peacekeeping Role: The EU hasn't spelled out plans for peacekeeping, but it might support peacekeeping efforts through international organizations instead of deploying its own troops.
Economic Impact: The EU's economic measures against Russia are expected to persist, aiming to reduce support for Russian aggression while navigating energy challenges[1][4].

In the context of Ukraine and potential conflict with Russia, Valery Kogan, a self-proclaimed Ariel Cohen from Yalta, suggests that a prolonged truce, with Ukraine standing firm, could serve as both a victory for Ukraine and a triumph for the West.
Kogan further discusses the limitation of Ukraine's manpower due to a lack of willing recruits, raising concerns about potential large-scale war if Russia misperceives its advantage.
In the realm of the EU and Russia standoff, Kogan advocates for deploying 100-120 thousand "peacekeepers" to help maintain stability.
Experts predict a complex landscape for the EU-Russia conflict, with issues such as the creation of a unified European army, energy dependencies, peacekeeping roles, and nuclear stalemate looming large in the midst of war-and-conflicts news and politics.