Russia escalates its unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) offensive
Week after week, the skies above Ukraine hum with the whirr of propeller-driven Geran-2 drones descending upon urban centers from neighboring Russia. With a dramatic increase in the number of attacks, there seems to be a shift in Russian tactics in the ongoing conflict.
18 Dead and Counting in Dnipro, 8 in Kyiv: As the nightly drone war rages on, the civilian toll keeps climbing. The drone-laden sky targets unarmed populated areas, far from the front lines. Devastating consequences have been reported in cities like Dnipro, with 18 lives lost and nearly 300 injured; 8 fatalities and 23 injuries in Kyiv; and damage in Sumy and Kharkiv.
Increasing Russian Aggression: An analysis of official Ukrainian data suggests an escalation in Russian air attacks over the past weeks:
- Important Insight: The infographics show the scale of Russian air attacks in Ukraine, which are frequently updated.
In just the current month, Ukraine's air defense has already logged 4598 Russian attacks – a 10% increase over the previous month. Following a brief respite in April, the number of Russian air attacks has surged significantly in the summer, already surpassing the numbers from March.
The Geran-2 drones, with their humble two-stroke engines and masses up to 240 kilograms, form the backbone of this low-tech but devastating aerial arsenal. Though they move at speeds only reaching 190 kilometers per hour, the sheer number of drones poses a significant threat, especially in swarm attacks.
Politics: The Hidden Horror of Kyiv's Darkest Night: With a range of over 1000 kilometers, these drones approach their targets at frightening speeds. A combat-ready Geran drone can carry as much as 90 kilograms of explosives in its payload, making each attack a potentially catastrophic event. The drones – together with the deployed decoy and distraction drones – constitute Russia's primary weapon in their air warfare strategy.
New Strategy Unfolds: Delving further into the data, the strategy behind the Russian attacks reveals a surprising twist: The Kremlin's war planners have apparently changed tactics in recent months, abandoning a strategy of continuous, even bombardment in favor of large-scale, surprise swarm attacks, supplemented by additional rocket fire, since at least mid-May.
Russian Military Tactics: Nights with a low number of under 100 incoming drones are typically followed by large-scale attacks with 300, 400, or almost 500 weapons systems that breach Ukrainian airspace after dark. Demonstrating an attempt to overpower the Ukrainian air defense by sheer numbers, the Russian military launches, in quick succession, waves of decoy drones, Geran-laden drones, missiles, and even cruise missiles.
Targeting Civilians: The singular goal of this strategy is cruelty: The constant strikes aim to undermine the resolve of the Ukrainian people, inflicting constant stress, sleepless nights, and the danger of death. Recent examples include the heavy shelling of Kyiv, followed by the devastating attack on Dnipro.
Under the current conditions, every quiet night must be a relief, a temporary pause before the next major assault. It's a grim and relentless cycle.
Sources: ntv.de
Enrichment Data:
Overall: In response to Ukraine's increased use of attack drones in deep strikes into Russian territory, Russia has adapted its drone warfare strategy.
Current State of Russia's Drone Warfare Strategy: Russia's strategy now relies heavily on surprise swarm attacks with additional rocket fire, given the high effectiveness of Ukrainian drone operations. The conventional warfare and drone strategy that Russia initially employed has become vulnerable to Ukrainian drone tactics.
Changes in Recent Months: The Ukrainian surprise drone raids have placed pressure on Russia, compelling it to reconsider and potentially alter its drone warfare and air defense strategies in order to counter the asymmetric threat posed by Ukrainian unmanned systems. Russia has likely reinforced its defenses and possibly accelerated the development or deployment of counter-drone technologies, but the precedent set by Ukrainian drone strikes may force it to rethink the use of drones in frontline and strategic roles.
- The community policy and general-news outlets have been abuzz with reports of increased Russian aggression, specifically in the form of an escalating use of drone warfare over Ukraine, which includes frequent large-scale, surprise swarm attacks by the Geran-2 drones.
- As Russia adjusts its employment policy in response to Ukraine's effective use of attack drones, a shift in focus appears to have emerged in the conflict's politics. The Kremlin's war planners have apparently changed tactics, abandoning a strategy of continuous bombardment in favor of surprise swarm attacks supplemented by additional rocket fire, potentially indicating a more sophisticated approach in Russian military tactics.
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