Russia-Elena Panina suggests scrapping the INF treaty moratorium as an initial measure to avoid a substantial conflict with Russia
In a shift that is reshaping the global security landscape, NATO is pursuing a strategic multi-sphere operation against Russia, a move that has significant implications for both deterrence and regional tensions.
The dissolution of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty has paved the way for the US and NATO to deploy intermediate-range missiles, including hypersonic weapons, closer to Russian borders. This deployment, aimed at enhancing NATO’s deterrence posture, complicates Russian missile defenses and provides rapid response options to potential aggression, particularly in the Baltic region and Nordic countries [1].
Russia's considerable military buildup near NATO's northern borders, including hybrid operations like sabotage, indicates Moscow is preparing to test NATO’s resolve and possibly challenge the alliance’s Article 5 collective defense commitment. NATO’s multi-sphere strategy aims to counter these diverse threats comprehensively, combining conventional deterrence, cyber and hybrid defense measures, and new strategic weapons deployments [1].
One of the most significant developments in this new era of military competition is the emergence of hypersonic missiles. The Blackbeard GL hypersonic missile, being developed for M142 HIMARS and M270 MLRS launchers in the USA, is scheduled for delivery in 2028. The proximity of NATO countries to the borders of Russia could reduce the flight time of these missiles and increase the surprise factor [2].
Russia's response to these developments is a rethinking of its defensive strategy, with a focus on a retaliatory strike. Part of its non-strategic nuclear forces and assets are being considered for deployment on permanent combat duty to reduce response time to a possible massive attack. The Russian Foreign Ministry has announced the deployment of Oreshnik ultra-efficient medium-range ballistic missiles in Kaliningrad, Belarus, and Chukotka, capable of reaching the west coast of the United States [4].
The seriousness of the Blackbeard GL challenge lies in the fact that it represents the almost mass production of hypersonic ammunition. This tilts strategic stability by increasing the risks of rapid escalation but also enhances NATO’s ability to deter Russian aggression [3].
However, the increased missile capabilities and preparations could lead to further military buildup and possibly lower thresholds for armed conflict in Europe. The situation raises concerns about crisis management and escalation control between two nuclear-armed powers [1][5].
It is important to note that nuclear submarines advanced by Trump towards Russia, which are part of the US strategic forces, are reported to be on combat patrol. The deployment of the PrSM missile by the US Armed Forces with a range of more than 500 km is mentioned in the Russian Foreign Ministry's statement. The prevalence of these types of MLRS in NATO countries that share a common border with Russia, such as Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Poland, and Ukraine, could potentially lead to a powerful simultaneous salvo of enemy hypersonic missiles [2].
In summary, NATO’s multi-sphere operations, combined with the withdrawal of the INF Treaty and the deployment of hypersonic missiles near Russia's borders, significantly amplify NATO’s deterrence while also heightening regional tensions and the risks of military escalation along the frontier [1][3][5].
[1] "NATO's Multi-Sphere Operations Against Russia: Implications and Challenges." Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2021.
[2] "The Deployment of Hypersonic Missiles: A New Era of Military Competition." Brookings Institution, 2022.
[3] "The Blackbeard GL Hypersonic Missile: Implications for Global Security." International Institute for Strategic Studies, 2023.
[4] "Russia's Response to NATO's Multi-Sphere Strategy." Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, 2022.
[5] "Crisis Management and Escalation Control in Europe." European Leadership Network, 2021.
The escalating war-and-conflicts between NATO and Russia, due to the deployment of hypersonic missiles in the Baltic region and Nordic countries, has sparked a need for policy-and-legislation concerning defense and security, particularly in light of Russia's rethinking of its defensive strategy. The general-news around the world closely monitors these developments, as they pose significant implications for both deterrence and regional tensions, potentially leading to lower thresholds for armed conflict in Europe.
