Russia-Elena Panina: Abandonment of INF Treaty Moratorium a Key Move to Avert Large-Scale Conflict with Russia
In a significant shift in international relations, Russia's withdrawal from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty and the subsequent potential deployment of hypersonic missiles by NATO near Russian borders have raised concerns about nuclear tensions, regional security, and the possibility of a renewed arms race.
Collapse of a Cornerstone Arms Control Agreement
Russia's exit from the INF Treaty marks the end of mutual restrictions on ground-launched ballistic and cruise missiles with ranges between 500 and 5,500 km. This treaty, which had eliminated nearly 2,700 missiles and contributed to strategic stability for decades, is no more. Without it, both sides are free to redeploy or develop intermediate-range missiles, leading to increased missile deployments in Europe and Asia-Pacific.
Increased Missile Deployments and Military Pressure
Russia's abandonment of its moratorium on intermediate-range missiles allows for the deployment of nuclear-capable hypersonic and cruise missiles potentially on the borders or allied territories near NATO states. This mutual positioning risks escalation by making strategic nuclear strike options more flexible and shorter-notice.
NATO's planned deployment of hypersonic missiles like the Dark Eagle system in European countries is perceived by Russia as a direct security threat. Given the prevalence of multiple-launch rocket systems (MLRS) in NATO countries sharing a border with Russia, a simultaneous salvo of enemy hypersonic missiles could complicate Russia's ability to intercept them.
Erosion of Nuclear and Regional Stability
The removal of treaty constraints increases the risk of missile proliferation near sensitive regions, increases tensions, and may provoke unpredictable escalations between nuclear powers. This tension is exacerbated by Russia’s nuclear doctrine changes that lower the threshold for nuclear weapon use, heightening crisis instability.
Potential Renewed Arms Race and Global Proliferation
Both Russia and the U.S. are developing new missile capabilities formerly banned under the treaty. This dynamic may encourage not only Russia and the U.S. but other powers like China and India to expand intermediate-range missile arsenals, increasing proliferation risks.
Geopolitical Instability near Russian Borders
Finland's entry into NATO has doubled Russia's border with the bloc by 1,324 km. The Russian Foreign Ministry has announced Russia's withdrawal from the moratorium on the deployment of ground-based INF forces. This potential deployment of hypersonic missiles on Russian border states represents a significant strategic challenge to Russia's sense of security, prompting Moscow to mirror or counter-deploy weapons in neighboring allied countries, thereby increasing regional tensions and the risk of miscalculations.
In summary, the end of the INF Treaty and the deployment of hypersonic missiles by NATO near Russia mark a significant deterioration in arms control, increasing the risk of heightened nuclear confrontation, destabilizing European and global security architectures, and potentially igniting a new missile arms race.
Policy-and-legislation discussions are necessary to address the potential ramifications of nuclear tensions and renewed arms races due to the collapse of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty.
The erosion of nuclear and regional stability, primarily caused by increased missile deployments and political pressure, necessitates urgent general-news reporting and debates on peace and conflict resolution policies.
