Russia clarifies its nuclear policy
In a candid July interview with The International Affairs, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergei Ryabkov, asserted that traditional nuclear deterrence seems to be waning in the face of the ongoing war in Ukraine. Ryabkov's assertion mirrored sentiments expressed by Russian leader Vladimir Putin regarding potential modifications to Russia's nuclear doctrine, which could lower the threshold for the deployment of low-yield nuclear weapons on the battlefield.
On August 27, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov announced that Moscow was refining its nuclear doctrine, as reported by the official RIA news agency. Remarks made by Lavrov came at a time when the Biden Administration sought to downplay the significance of recent updates to the US Nuclear Weapons Employment Planning Guidance, which now acknowledges the risks of coordinated nuclear challenges from North Korea, China, and Russia.
Throughout the discourse, clues emerge about the underlying components of Russia's nuclear posture – an issue that extends beyond its wartime tactics. On July 31, Russia launched the third phase of exercises for its non-strategic nuclear forces, with personnel simulating the installation of dummy warheads on launch vehicles and moving them to designated launch sites in preparation for electronic launches, according to the Russian Defense Ministry.
In August, Russia introduced its latest drone, the "Doomsday" first-person view aerial vehicle, designed to monitor radiation levels in the event of a nuclear attack. Capable of being operated from inside an armored vehicle on the move, this device is viewed by some experts as a harbinger of a new epoch in nuclear confrontations.
"We are in the advanced stages of a new nuclear arms race," said military analyst and veteran Israeli intelligence officer, Sergei Migdal, when discussing the current geopolitical climate with Eurasianet. As the leading participant in the arms race at present with over 5,500 nuclear warheads, Russia outnumbers the United States, which has over 5,044 nuclear weapons stationed across the US and five allied nations. Outgoing NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg mentioned that the alliance is considering deploying more nuclear weapons, exploring the possibility of removing them from storage and stationing them on standby.
In August 2019, the US withdrew from the 1987 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, citing Russian non-compliance. In response, Moscow declared the treaty dead. In June, Putin called for the resumption of production and potential deployment of intermediate- and shorter-range nuclear-capable missiles. Experts predict that this could take anywhere from two to four years to achieve, given the existing production lines and mothballed or abandoned facilities from the 1990s. These short- and medium-range missiles could be stationed in Belarus, the Leningrad Military District, the Southern Military District, or the Eastern Military District, with each region posing a threat to neighboring NATO members and US allies.
The race for nuclear dominance is not limited to ground-based weapons. Amid this new arms race, Russia seeks to secure leverage against the West by pursuing ambitious nuclear weapon developments in space. In April, US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan stated that the US believes Russia is developing a new satellite carrying a nuclear device. Moscow then blocked the passage of the first-ever UN Security Council resolution concerning a potential space arms race. In May, the Pentagon suspected Russia of having orbited a "counter-space weapon."
Russian tacticians theorize that this device could be a satellite with a nuclear reactor, an electronic warfare satellite with an extended lifetime and an antenna to jam constellations of satellites in multiple orbits, or a "reconnaissance satellite with an isotope reactor" or a "nuclear reactor-powered killer satellite" wielding space "torpedoes" to annihilate rival satellite constellations.
The Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty, a crucial agreement that prohibits nuclear testing, is under strain as well. Russia abandoned its ratification of this treaty in October 2023, following the US Senate's rejection of the treaty in 1999. The US has since conducted Minuteman III missile tests each year, built a missile test silo at Vandenberg Space Force Base in California, and staged an underground explosion in Rainier Mesa, Nevada – all actions that rekindle memories of a bygone nuclear testing era.
In discussing possible military doctrine changes with the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum in June, Putin underscored his intentions to link potential updates with nuclear weapons testing. "Possible changes could mean resuming underground or atmospheric tests to demonstrate the operational readiness of our nuclear weapons," said Israeli expert Sergei Migdal. Moscow has thus far relied on computer simulations for nuclear testing, but a return to live testing could strengthen its implied threats towards NATO allies.
While the Kremlin's nuclear positions pose a genuine challenge to global security, experts like Pavel Luzin, a visiting scholar at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, argue that the ultimate goal of Russia's nuclear signaling is bargaining, not outright intimidation. The underlying objective is to secure concessions in the ongoing war in Ukraine, rather than precipitating a catastrophic nuclear conflict.
- The ongoing discussions about Russia's nuclear doctrine and potential modifications, as expressed by Sergei Ryabkov and Vladimir Putin, are echoed in the ongoing debate about the resumption of nuclear testing, which could lower the threshold for the deployment of low-yield nuclear weapons on the battlefield and be a part of geopolitical negotiations.
- The race for nuclear dominance extends to space as both Russia and the United States are pursuing ambitious nuclear weapon developments, with Russia theorizing about the possible use of a satellite carrying a nuclear device to gain leverage against the West and potentially disrupt rival satellite constellations.
- The global security landscape is significantly influenced by the ongoing conversations about nuclear testing, as the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty, a crucial agreement that prohibits nuclear testing, is under strain, with multiple nations, including the United States and Russia, rekindling memories of a bygone nuclear testing era.
